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Furthermore, if what you say is right, countries should have been attacked in order of their CA deficits.

Um, no. That does not follow. At all. CA deficits are far from the only determinant in vulnerability to Soros attacks, whereas debt levels relative to asset levels are (almost definitionally) the overwhelmingly dominant component in vulnerability to bankruptcy.

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Wed Sep 7th, 2011 at 03:36:42 PM EST
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"CA deficits are far from the only determinant in vulnerability"

Shifting the goal posts again? You claimed CA deficits are the start and end of this crisis.

by IM on Wed Sep 7th, 2011 at 06:41:29 PM EST
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No, I said that this was a currency crisis.

Currency crises are caused by structural CA imbalances (note: Imbalances include CA surpluses - the surplus country is as responsible for the imbalance as the deficit country).

They are triggered by all sorts of things, and there is a substantial component of black magic in divining when a vulnerability to a currency run will translate into an actual run (though in this case it was real easy: Just sort the structural CA deficit countries in ascending order of political power).

Really, the distinction between fundamental and proximate cause is not a novel concept or arbitrary imposition. It has been a recognised concept in every school of epistemology (except perhaps the radical social constructivists) since Aristotle. And I did dare to presume - wrongly, apparently - that you had paid attention to epistemology at some point in the last three or four thousand years.

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Thu Sep 8th, 2011 at 02:42:59 AM EST
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