Hypothesis: The ECB's decisions should not conform to longstanding BuBa policy more often than would be the case by random chance.

Empirical reality: The ECB's policies conform to longstanding BuBa policy with very few exceptions, and when one of these exceptions arises, the BuBa throws a histrionic tantrum as if their most sacred and fundamental rights have been violated.

Conclusion: The theory is falsified.

You can repeat the fact that the BuBa has only one vote on the board until you go blue in the face. That does not change the readily observed fact that the BuBa is setting policy.

And I really don't care whether they do that by bullying the rest into line with their supposed Seriousness; by packing the analysis staff with their insane Hayekian crackpots (but I repeat myself); or even by plying the other members with hookers and cocaine (although the latter would admittedly be the more entertaining version).

I care about the fact that they are setting policy. Because their policies are not sanity-based.

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.