Welcome to European Tribune. It's gone a bit quiet around here these days, but it's still going.
But lets talk about structural CA deficits. All I claimed is that structural CA deficits in Italy and France - not to talk about Ireland and Belgium - are low. A lot lower than in Spain and Greece and Portugal. Isn't that a bit of a problem to your CA hypothesis?

No, the prediction is that the endgame in all this is that all the deficit countries including France will end up on the other side of the fracture from Germany when the Euro blows up. (Cue in the discussion of Jerome's Niemöller moment)

The only reason why France migth be included in "core Europe" is the political prejudice of the Francogerman axis, but if France insists on hoisting itself to a new faux gold standard alongside Germany and the Netherlands, their economy will first suffer a private debt bubble and then get blown out of the water in the next business cycle.

Economics is politics by other means

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Sep 8th, 2011 at 04:10:17 AM EST
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Fine. Lets talk again when - or if - the euro blows up.
Any month now, if I remember your last prediction it was June.

 "all the deficit countries"

I still claim that calling a country with a CA deficit of 0.1 gdp and a country with 10.00 of gdp both deficit countries doesn't make sense.

by IM on Thu Sep 8th, 2011 at 05:08:35 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The stability condition for a structural CA deficit country in a fixed-rate regime without a BanCor is that nominal growth must exceed nominal interest rates on the foreign debt. If the ECBuBa were pursuing a zero risk-free interest rate policy, this would be possible. But it isn't, so it isn't.

If you don't believe me, just derive the convergence criterion yourself.

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Thu Sep 8th, 2011 at 08:03:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]


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