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Debts that can not be repaid will not be repaid. Attempts to repay them that involve throwing a qualified majority of the citizenry into abject poverty will create a constitutional crisis.

If the sanity-based side wins that constitutional crisis, Spain's creditors will be told to fuck off. If the insanity-based side wins the constitutional crisis, there will be another one, and another one and another one, until either the sanity-based side wins or the insanity-based side starts rounding up dissidents and shooting them.

For a federal republic like Spain and Germany, loss of territorial integrity becomes a credible scenario if the federal and some local levels end up on different sides in the constitutional crisis.

One way or another, the Spanish body politic will be writing itself a new constitution before 2050.

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Mon Aug 29th, 2011 at 04:21:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]
For a federal republic like Spain and Germany, loss of territorial integrity becomes a credible scenario...

Especially considering the not insignificant centrifugal forces present in Spain today. This could be good news for Catalan and Basque separatists, among others.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."

by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Mon Aug 29th, 2011 at 04:29:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The Basque and Catalan right-wing nationalists may successfully negotiate themselves some crumbs of devolution in exchange for not ganging up with assorted leftists in asking for a referendum.

Economics is politics by other means
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Aug 30th, 2011 at 01:59:13 AM EST
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I am thinking more about effects two or three years on, when conditions have really started to bite all over Spain -- assuming it remains austerity, steady as she goes.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Tue Aug 30th, 2011 at 07:54:47 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The odds are of a 4-year majority PP government. So 4 years of biting austerity is what we're getting.

Economics is politics by other means
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Aug 30th, 2011 at 10:09:48 AM EST
[ Parent ]

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