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ARGeezer:
if they are then kicked out/encouraged to leave the euro, or if the euro collapses,

I didn't get back to the points made by you and Jake in Migeru's diary (about conjected future events in the case of a euro collapse or Spain leaving the euro). But I'd have thought any government, once monetary sovereignty was reinstated, would have a perfectly good case for claiming that the amendment was introduced for a state without monetary sovereignty under euro rules and therefore no longer applicable, and thus propose its abrogation. (What sovereign government would want to remain with that millstone round its neck?)

The opposition might be able to refuse to vote the abrogation, but it would be hard to show how that would gain popular support. Only in the case of deliberate driving towards major conflict would one side of the political board block the process. Which is why I think that the deeper currents in Spanish society that might lead to a wish for conflict, are more important than the epiphenomenon of the constitutional rule.

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Thu Sep 1st, 2011 at 12:32:14 PM EST
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Maybe the situation in Spain is markedly different but as far as I have seen there is no connection in the public debate between TEH DEBT!11 and the Euro. It is just a fact of live that the state running a deficit makes baby Jesus cry.
by generic on Thu Sep 1st, 2011 at 12:36:57 PM EST
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Well, that is, generally speaking, the pitch one would expect - just like the crisis fell on our heads out of an empty blue sky.
by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Thu Sep 1st, 2011 at 12:48:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The opposition might be able to refuse to vote the abrogation, but it would be hard to show how that would gain popular support.

When did the PP become more concerned with popular support on issues than with the contributions of PP backers? And as long as they can deflect and obfuscate they may well succeed in keeping the blame pinned on the socialists for having pushed through the amendment. But is would be more likely that they would label the amendment the one sane bit of legislation undertaken by the socialists - with the support of the PP, naturally.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Thu Sep 1st, 2011 at 02:39:31 PM EST
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If they're not interested in popular support, a referendum should deal with them nicely.
by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Thu Sep 1st, 2011 at 04:42:12 PM EST
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With the support of their backers and the machinations of their "think tanks" they can manufacture enough support to thwart their foes.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Thu Sep 1st, 2011 at 09:06:19 PM EST
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If you can understand spoken Spanish, check out this video comment by Iñaki Gabilondo (one of Spain's most prestigious TV and earlier radio journalists). He minces no words. He calls ZP a proponent of enlightend despotism, he says ZP humiliates himself and humiliates us all, he says Democracy is like Monarchy now, two institutions with powerful ritual forms but no power. He wonders what the point is of having an election campaign right after this constitutional reform that has emptied democracy of its content.

Economics is politics by other means
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Sep 1st, 2011 at 04:51:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I'd have thought any government, once monetary sovereignty was reinstated, would have a perfectly good case for claiming that the amendment was introduced for a state without monetary sovereignty under euro rules and therefore no longer applicable, and thus propose its abrogation.

You are assuming that the right wing is sane.

All available evidence points to the contrary conclusion: The right wing likes balanced budget rules because they break the economy. It's not a bug to the PP, it's a feature. And they will have a blocking minority unless they suffer a really epic, generational, 1932 Republican style political emasculation.

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Thu Sep 1st, 2011 at 05:05:52 PM EST
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