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Very good summary argument, DoDo. I'm not sure that one could expect prices to change monthly, for i don't believe costs drop at that speed.

In fact, it would be more appropriate to see what margins are for the producers. Some of the price drops are due to technical/manufacturing progress, some to economies of scale, and some are simply strategic, expecting to capture market share.

These third kind of price drops may be actually dangerous for the industry, because it affects the financial headroom of the company, and increased market volatility. Neither of those conditions sends proper signals to the industry.

"Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage." - Ana´s Nin

by Crazy Horse on Mon Jan 16th, 2012 at 03:39:13 AM EST
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Incidentally, what I wrote is now reportedly the industry proposal towards industry minister (and FDP party secretary) Philipp Rösler:

WDH/'FTD': Solarbranche legt eigenen Kürzungsvorschlag vor | FTD.de WDH /'FTD': solar industry presents own reduction proposal | FTD.de
Das neue Modell der stetigen Kürzung soll den Zubau reduzieren. Bisher wird die Einspeisevergütung immer zum 1. Juli und zum 1. Januar gekürzt. Davor kommt es regelmäßig zu enormen Schlussverkaufseffekten, die in Zukunft vermieden werden sollen. Noch unklar ist, ob die Anpassung in Zukunft vierteljährlich oder monatlich erfolgen soll. Aus Sicht der Branche ließe sich so das Marktgeschehen verstetigen.The new model of continuous reduction is designed to reduce annual new installations. Until now, the feed-in tariff is reduced on 1 July and 1 January. Prior to [these reductions] usually enormous clearance sale effects occur, which are to be avoided in the future. It is still unclear whether in future the adjustment should be made quarterly or monthly. From the perspective of the industry, this would be the weay to stabilize the market.


*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Thu Jan 19th, 2012 at 09:26:42 AM EST
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