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what we are seeing IS an oil crisis - peak oil translates into higher prices, which eventually causes lower demand (in those countries which are price sensitive, i.e. mostly the Western world, as a large portion of the emerging economies subside fuels) - and this is accompanied by widespread pain, as people have to do with less, or with more expensive oil, and need to reduce their consumption of everything else as a consequence.
is just a version of the Austerian recession is the hangover from the excesses of the past.

As JakeS puts it,

Talking about oil as if it had anything to do with why the Euro failed leaves the reader with the erroneous impression that the Euro would not have failed if oil had been plentiful. And that is not the message you want to push. Because it's not true, and it's not true in ways that lend support to stupid policy conclusions.
The smart policy conclusion is given by ATinNM
the kind of capital expenditure required to move Greece - and Spain and Portugal - away from being a oil-exposed economy is exactly the micro-economic stimulus needed to help kick-start the economy.
but you say that people have to do with less ... and need to reduce their consumption of everything else including not being able to invest in turning their economies around.

As a result, we will see Germany and the Netherlands using their trade surpluses to fund renewable energy development in the North Sea while pointing fingers at the Mediterranean countries for staying backwards, undeveloped, indebted and oil dependent.

tens of millions of people stand to see their lives ruined because the bureaucrats at the ECB don't understand introductory economics -- Dean Baker

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Jan 19th, 2012 at 08:41:51 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The periphery countries are all ahead of Germany in terms of wind power (and renewables) penetration: Ireland, Portugal, Spain all have higher wind penetration than Germany. And a lot of that was financed in the boom years by core country banks. Just as a lot of train infrastructure in Spain was financed by core banks.

I won't talk about the evil of pro-cyclical polices, because we agree on that. The more interesting question is whether the eurozone crisis would have happened anyway. And you have to wonder - if banks had been let to go bankrupt, a lot of the transfers from core to periphery would have been made irreversible through default. Maybe not the cleanest transfer mechanism, but a real one still.

So the culprit is the core governments forcing the periphery governments to support their creditors so that core lenders would not go bankrupt (and be supported by core governments). Effectively, the bailout of the core banks was passed onto the hapless periphery.

Wind power

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Thu Jan 19th, 2012 at 09:16:29 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Ireland is still not allowed burn unsecured bondholders in what used to be Anglo-Irish Bank.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Thu Jan 19th, 2012 at 09:30:13 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The periphery countries are all ahead of Germany in terms of wind power (and renewables) penetration: Ireland, Portugal, Spain all have higher wind penetration than Germany. And a lot of that was financed in the boom years by core country banks. Just as a lot of train infrastructure in Spain was financed by core banks.

So where does the oil dependence come from?

  1. lack of rail freight.
  2. lack of inland waterways
  3. poor energy efficiency in buildings

Where else?

tens of millions of people stand to see their lives ruined because the bureaucrats at the ECB don't understand introductory economics -- Dean Baker
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Jan 19th, 2012 at 09:51:33 AM EST
[ Parent ]
  • lack of domestic oil or gas production
  • less nuclear power

are the first culprits. Energy intensity of GDP would need to be investigated.

Wind power
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Thu Jan 19th, 2012 at 10:27:02 AM EST
[ Parent ]
0. Gross stupidity in infrastructure development.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Wed Jan 25th, 2012 at 09:45:19 AM EST
[ Parent ]

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