Welcome to European Tribune. It's gone a bit quiet around here these days, but it's still going.
Display:
My pick is Romney, but I'm expecting a bloody January, especially if Florida is forced to proportional allocation, since Ron Paul can collect delegates with 10% or more of the vote in a lot of Republican primaries, until April and the winner take all primaries start.

I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.
by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Tue Jan 3rd, 2012 at 07:59:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]
All the states I've looked at have a 20% floor.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Tue Jan 3rd, 2012 at 08:25:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Republican or Democratic primary?

I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.
by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Tue Jan 3rd, 2012 at 10:11:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Republican.

See here

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Tue Jan 3rd, 2012 at 10:14:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]
20% is the max, 0% is the min. NH is 10%, SC is a mix of CD and Statewide WTA, Nevada seems to be 3.5%.

I think I was repeating a misapprehension of R rules ~ it so rarely matters after South Carolina. And from Nevada local news coverage, Nevada is a mess where they let each county set caucus rules.

Ron Paul can actually take delegates in Winner Take All District states, by focusing on University heavy districts.

If January is bloody, clinching the nomination gets pushed out to April by the Math ~ each delagate taken by someone else pushes that out. If Fox gets behind Santorum, he'll win some states on Super Tuesday.

I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.

by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Tue Jan 3rd, 2012 at 10:51:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I'd have to run the numbers (groan) but IIRC the earliest a person can be assured of a First Round nomination is mid-April.  (Assuming a competitive race.)

In January the Biggie is Florida, WTA, and 50 pledged delegates.  Next is Iowa's 28, then SC with 25, and NH checks in with 12.

I haven't seen any recent polling from South Carolina but the SC House majority leader endorsed Gingrich today.  That means boots on the ground for the G-man, something he didn't have in Iowa.

Florida is shaping-up bloody.  The last I saw Romney and Gingrich were in a statistical tie.  With Perry and Bachmann gone Gingrich should jump 8 to 10 points.

The Wild Card is Santorum.  Can he flip his Iowa results to become a contender in SC and Florida?  I doubt it since he has no money AND no local organization.  Can win with lots of one and not much of the other, I've never seen a candidate win without both.


She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Wed Jan 4th, 2012 at 01:45:40 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Gingrich effectively conceded the nomination and endorsed Santorum tonight, though he formally stays in the race in order to attack Romney and Paul in the debates.

Must be easier to make the decision to stop running for your own nomination when you never put all that much effort into chasing the nomination in the first place ~ Gingrich spent much more time selling books than he spent campaigning in Iowa, for instance.

That gives Santorum some breathing room, as the Beltway media is going to be focusing on the promised rumble by Gingrich in the debates.

South Carolina is not winner take all statewide ~ it has statewide delegates, but also per house district delegates. If Ron Paul focuses on cherry picking in his strongest districts, conceding the state as a whole, he could well pick up delegates that would otherwise fall to Mitt.

Florida is a winner take all state at present, but the RNC is considering taking that away, in addition to the 50% of delegates it lost when it decided to go before March.

I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.

by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Wed Jan 4th, 2012 at 02:38:20 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Gingrich effectively conceded the nomination and endorsed Santorum tonight ...

What I'm reading is Gingrich is heading to South Carolina for a showdown.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Wed Jan 4th, 2012 at 11:12:29 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Gingrich sounds to me like he wants to hurt Romney.  Seems to know he's beat, but going on the attack anyway.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Wed Jan 4th, 2012 at 11:42:17 AM EST
[ Parent ]
This:

A group of movement conservatives has called an emergency meeting in Texas next weekend to find a "consensus" Republican presidential hopeful, POLITICO has learned.

The meeting is being hosted by such prominent conservative figures as James Dobson, founder of Focus on the Family; Don Wildmon, onetime chairman of the American Family Association; and Gary Bauer, himself a former presidential candidate.

Movement conservatives are concerned that a vote split between Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum among base voters could enable Mitt Romney to grab the GOP nomination. A source who shared the invitation said the meeting was about how to avoid such a possibility.

Romney has the money but he doesn't yet have the votes.  The Conservatives have the votes and can raise the money but they don't have a candidate.

The stage is set for a knock-down faction fight.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Wed Jan 4th, 2012 at 12:03:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]
He's "staying the race" to qualify for the debates, but from his speech on Tuesday night and his smashing Romney in the morning talk this morning, he's in it to hit Romney and Paul, not in it to try to win delegates.


I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.
by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Thu Jan 5th, 2012 at 12:52:44 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Display:

Top Diaries

Manufactured outrage

by Frank Schnittger - Sep 17
1 comment

DUP decline continues

by Frank Schnittger - Aug 29
17 comments

Islamic State Khorasan Province

by Oui - Aug 24
84 comments

The American Dream

by Oui - Aug 22
29 comments

Occasional Series