Welcome to European Tribune. It's gone a bit quiet around here these days, but it's still going.
Display:
Maybe the disenchanted will flock to Jobbik and Jobbik will use the powers Fidesz made for itself to establish a fascist dictatorship, which will definitely come in armed conflict with neighbouring countries. (Most opposition people in Hungary I tell this reject that it is a realistic possibility, assuming that Jobbik can't get much above its present 20% figures; but based on the impressions I gained in discussions with Fidesz supporters, I wasn't convinced.)

How can Jobbik get through the safeguards Fidesz set up for itself? Do you envision Jobbik getting a 2/3 supermajority, too?

tens of millions of people stand to see their lives ruined because the bureaucrats at the ECB don't understand introductory economics -- Dean Baker

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Jan 3rd, 2012 at 01:01:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yep, and absorbing Fidesz "loyalists" who jump ship. (That is, I think it is more likely for a spineless Fidesz loyalist today to jump ship towards Jobbik than to jump ship towards the left.)

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Tue Jan 3rd, 2012 at 01:05:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Can they achieve that in one election cycle, or would there be a priod of Fidesz government with a Jobbik blocking minority? How stable can that situation be?

tens of millions of people stand to see their lives ruined because the bureaucrats at the ECB don't understand introductory economics -- Dean Baker
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Jan 3rd, 2012 at 01:07:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]
This is Central Europe, majorities can shift pretty fast within an election cycle. In polls Fidesz already lost half of its supporters, while Jobbik regained minor losses over the past year. Some numbers from the last poll by the pollster I see as most independent:

  • certain voters: 40% (record low)
  • unable to choose a party to support: 40% (near record high)
  • Fidesz, total adult population (certain voters): 26% (43%) (record low since election; the highs were 50% (72%) in June 2010)
  • Socialists: 14% (23%)
  • Jobbik: 11% (20%)
  • LMP: 4% (8%)
  • Gyurcsány's Democratic Coalition: 2% (5%)
  • all others: 2% (1%)

Note that even the most popular politician (by the question "would you like to see X in an important role in the future?"), the figurehead President of the Republic (sic!), has only 33% support.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Tue Jan 3rd, 2012 at 01:31:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Display:

Occasional Series