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Well those things were not the same

That was the point. It's not all-out war between regular armies with heavy weaponry (as the Third Reich assault following the Gleiwitz incident) which I'm concerned about in my worst-case scenarios when it comes to conflict with Slovakia and Romania, more the triggering of skirmishes to civil wars to civil wars with regular army intervention. (Note that I didn't link to the Siege of Vukovar itself, but to its fall, where paramilitaries played a strong role.)

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Thu Jan 5th, 2012 at 01:32:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yeah...you are right. It would be more like ex YU scenario. But who is going to "play" Serbs? Is Hungary going to be "bad guy" and Romanians, Slovaks (and Serbs with Hungarian minority in Vojvodina) good guys? I am not sure...depending of why this silence from EU is so "loud"...
And sooner or later after skirmishes we'll have big powers involved.


Science without religion is lame, religion without science is blind...Albert Einstein
by vbo on Thu Jan 5th, 2012 at 06:31:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Who're the goodies and who're the baddies will be decided retroactively when the great powers decide which faction to support.

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Fri Jan 6th, 2012 at 07:32:04 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I read somewhere toay ( I think it was Mediapart ) that the reason the EU is so quiet is that Germany and Austria have huge outstanding loans to Hungary. Anyone know if this is true?

Hey, Grandma Moses started late!
by LEP on Fri Jan 6th, 2012 at 05:53:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yes, especially the Austrian banking system has already been bailed out once and is failing again under the weight of its exposure to its Eastern neighbours.

tens of millions of people stand to see their lives ruined because the bureaucrats at the ECB don't understand introductory economics -- Dean Baker
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Jan 6th, 2012 at 06:03:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]
German banks have little exposure in Hungary, Austrian banks do. That didn't keep the EU form being not at all quiet on the economic front: see the central bank.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Fri Jan 6th, 2012 at 06:51:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]
On the EU, the Hungarian Central Bank and economic imbalances.

tens of millions of people stand to see their lives ruined because the bureaucrats at the ECB don't understand introductory economics -- Dean Baker
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Jan 6th, 2012 at 07:13:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]
BTW I tried to find a source on the composition of the foreign holders of both public and private credits, but failed. I only know that the main problem on the private front is Swiss francs; and that 10% of the entite public debt (that is about a sixth to fifth of the foreign public debt) is held by a single American investment fund since late last year.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Fri Jan 6th, 2012 at 07:40:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Is that one of those vulture funds specialised in buying distressed assets?

tens of millions of people stand to see their lives ruined because the bureaucrats at the ECB don't understand introductory economics -- Dean Baker
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Jan 6th, 2012 at 08:51:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yes, I guess:

Franklin Templeton Investments - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

...The firm specializes in conservatively managed mutual funds. It offers products under the Franklin, Templeton, Mutual Series and Fiduciary brand names. Like other large investment companies, the firm offers a wide variety of funds but is traditionally best known for bond funds under the Franklin brand, international funds under the Templeton brand, and value funds under the Mutual Series brand.

...In 2004, Franklin Templeton paid fines to the State of California, the Commonwealth of Massachusetts, and the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission to settle issues regarding questionable practices including market timing. The plan for distribution of settlement monies was completed in September 2006, and all distributions have been completed as of December 2008.

Some analysts reportedly said [sorry source in Hungarian] that maybe Franklin Templeton continued its purchases to avoid a loss of value of its existing holdings of Hungarian government debt, that is by preventing a market crash (which is said to previously have been a practice of the now nationalised private pension funds in Hungary).

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Sat Jan 7th, 2012 at 05:09:16 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Oh, those people?

tens of millions of people stand to see their lives ruined because the bureaucrats at the ECB don't understand introductory economics -- Dean Baker
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sat Jan 7th, 2012 at 05:54:35 AM EST
[ Parent ]
They-re just a regular mutual fund manager. Not particularly "locust". In fact, they got in trouble in the last decade for engaging in "market timing", which is a pretty reasonable thing to do except that some pension funds argued it was contrary to their interests as clients.

tens of millions of people stand to see their lives ruined because the bureaucrats at the ECB don't understand introductory economics -- Dean Baker
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sat Jan 7th, 2012 at 04:03:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Don't they have those loans to Greece? And Italy?
And they sorted it out (?) easily...


Science without religion is lame, religion without science is blind...Albert Einstein
by vbo on Fri Jan 6th, 2012 at 08:18:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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