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At some point in the future Fidesz will loose their majority but likely (barring 2/3 majority against them) hang on to lots of other levers of power. Then what?

Probably a constitutional crisis if the new majority tries to force them out, and Fidesz uses their levers of power to declare that forcing unconstitutional. Then it boils down to which side state agencies with guns chooses, which is not a good way to settle disputes.

Not looking good. What amazes me a bit is the shortsightedness of it all - grab power so hard that you can only be seperated from it with violence and that is suddenly a likely outcome.

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by A swedish kind of death on Tue Jan 10th, 2012 at 09:01:54 AM EST
No, if Fidesz's calculation works out, the new majority will be tied up to the extent that it will lose popularity fast, and even if it doesn't collapse itself, the Budget Commission can force new elections for Fidesz to return to power. This of course assumes that (1) the men left behind in high positions won't look for new masters, (2) there won't be a rival to Fidesz in opposition when the new government loses popularity.

A non-violent alternative is to precede the purge of Fidesz's ticking bombs in high offices with a call for a constitutional assembly to replace the constitution with one with more legitimacy than Fidesz's (note that they didn't dare to put it out on a referendum even when they still had an absolute majority of active voter public opinion behind them). Many in the opposition movement advocate just that, though it would be a question whether (non-far-right) opposition parties would be bold (and sane) enough to follow suit if the case arises.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Tue Jan 10th, 2012 at 04:39:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I was thinking what a new majority would do to cement its position before its support is drained.

I am glad that facts on the ground points in another direction then guns rule. A constitutional assembly sounds like a good way to go.

Sweden's finest (and perhaps only) collaborative, leftist e-newspaper Synapze.se

by A swedish kind of death on Tue Jan 10th, 2012 at 06:03:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Is resort to popular initiatives, a referendum, not possible to abrogate the constitution?
by de Gondi (publiobestia aaaatttthotmaildaughtusual) on Tue Jan 10th, 2012 at 07:11:04 PM EST
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There was such an initiative last year, right after parliament adopted the new constitution. However, referendum proposals have to go through a check by the Election Commission, which was taken over by Fidesz. The referendum proposal was rejected with a twisted legal argument, interpreting the new Constitution as an amendment. The issue went on to the Constitutional Court (now also Fidesz-controlled), which did nothing until December, then (as written in the diary) all on-going procedures were quashed. (There have been several other referendum initiatives against new laws, most of them were also rejected by the Election Commission.)

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Wed Jan 11th, 2012 at 09:42:18 AM EST
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Thanks! No checks and balances. Berlusconi tried to stack courts and institutions but the safeguards make it practically impossible. He would pass laws to either increase or reduce members within an institutional body or increase the number of members in that body selected by parliament. There's simply no way to stack a majority in key institutions short of a coup d'etat.

There is also the problem that the person appointed to a prestigious independant position may actually take seriously his institutional responsabilities and no longer obey the master, which I hope may happen with some of those Orban appointees.

by de Gondi (publiobestia aaaatttthotmaildaughtusual) on Wed Jan 11th, 2012 at 10:28:15 AM EST
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