Welcome to European Tribune. It's gone a bit quiet around here these days, but it's still going.
Pretty complicated set of postulates there.

I'd agree with you that the Trots will be lucky to pull in 3% between them. I'd also agree that Eva Joly is quite unlikely to do better than Mélenchon (though not for the reason you state - EELV will have a hard time because Joly is not an obvious candidate, and because the Verts have decided to throw the presidential in return for legislative seats).

But "We're all over the debacle of 2002", who dat? I think a lot of voters have firmly fixed in their minds that the first round is not to be pissed around with.

It's not my preferred set-up - the more Seriously Centrist™ Hollande is, the more I want to bash my head against the wall. But not so much because of crudely electoral designs. Much more because the time ahead calls for a political discourse that compellingly narrates... reality. Just watch the people flock to it if that happens. But Mélenchon isn't narrating either: just throwing lighted squibs.

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Wed Jan 4th, 2012 at 03:34:34 PM EST
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And quite a few I know as well. Linca, for instance, has also recently weighed in with his impressions on these pages in the recent past, with the same impression as I have. But, admittedly, I could be wrong in general and have seen no polling on the subject.

Agree with you on Joly, and would go further to make a similar comment on Mélenchon, who is not in my view an optimal candidate for us either, though in the primary my guy lost. Anybody who has seen Chassaigne speak and work a crowd will know that he has some serious potential, not just as a candidate who poses as the conscience of the PS, but who is a rassembleur in his own right.

The Hun is always either at your throat or at your feet. Winston Churchill

by r------ on Sat Jan 7th, 2012 at 08:31:53 AM EST
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