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a vast majority of Greeks want elections held more or less immediately. I also note that between them, Syriza and the GCP have roughly 20% of vote intentions in those same polls, ahead of PASOK when seen together.

I suspect there is also quite a lot of volatility in those numbers given that polling in Greece also suggests that "Don't know" or "Nobody" are polling, between them, in the 30% range.

Given Papademos is losing legitimacy as quickly as ipecac syrup tends to have one lose one's cookies (and the metaphor seems to me to be apt), what do the facts on the ground in Greece portend for a democratic rejection of the IMF and the EU?

The Hun is always either at your throat or at your feet. Winston Churchill

by r------ on Tue Jan 10th, 2012 at 10:15:38 AM EST
Does it matter?

Greece is now screwed if it defaults, and screwed if it doesn't.

Either way we'll see parents selling their kids into care more and more frequently now - followed by similar stories from the other southern economies, then the Atlantic ones, then Germany.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Tue Jan 10th, 2012 at 10:38:40 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Not sure it is screwed if it defaults. That's what everone assumes, "uncertainty in the bond markets" and all that hooey. I'm not buying it, all I see in the financial press is that countries will face "massive downside risk" if they default.

Oh yeah? What exactly are we talking about, and how is it worse than the alternative? That is the question I'm not seeign asked or answered.

That's why I'm asking.

The Hun is always either at your throat or at your feet. Winston Churchill

by r------ on Tue Jan 10th, 2012 at 11:11:33 AM EST
[ Parent ]
default would be mercifully quick, but they are going for the protracted agony, reinforcing talos' allusion to SM.

here's a taste of an excellent article which documents and explains a lot.

Peak Money Arrives | The Agonist

MF Global had made a very large bet on European government bonds, and didn't want to be restricted by the US limits on re-hypothecation, so it notified its customers that it was transferring their accounts to MF Global's subsidiary in London, since England has no limits on re-hypothecation. This meant a single customer account could be pledged as collateral multiple times to different banks. MF Global did not notify its customers that it intended to use their margin as its own collateral for its own trading activity.

The result was that MF Global was able to use customer margin multiple times with different bank lenders. This is the practice of using leverage to boost a firm's profits, but leverage also increases a firm's vulnerability to market losses. MF Global may have taken $1.2 billion in customer margin and pledged it as collateral to five different lenders, allowing it to create a position in European government bonds worth $5.0 billion. When these bonds sunk in value on the markets, the lenders watched their margin cushion shrink to the point where contractually they had to call for more margin from MF Global. At first MF Global was able to comply, but when five lenders are seeking more collateral from a firm that has little cash cushion in the first place, and when losses on the bond positions are mounting, a mad scramble takes place among the banks to seize whatever assets MF Global has, at the same time liquidating their trading positions to prevent any further losses.

Some lucky banks may have been holding on to the margin accounts that MF Global controlled (MF Global was not a bank and so could not itself maintain margin deposits). These banks might have requested permission to seize the margin accounts, or they may be done so unilaterally and risked the consequences afterward (the party holding on to cash in a bankruptcy is always in a superior position). However it happened, thousands of individual investors were absolute pawns in a brutal game of self-protection played by the big banks.

read the rest, it's all connected...

'The history of public debt is full of irony. It rarely follows our ideas of order and justice.' Thomas Piketty

by melo (melometa4(at)gmail.com) on Tue Jan 10th, 2012 at 03:34:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Not jesting, but executions for this kind of carelessness and greed might tune the system well.

Align culture with our nature. Ot else!
by ormondotvos (ormond.otvosnospamgmialcon) on Tue Jan 10th, 2012 at 10:50:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]
ugh...

there should be some punishment less, um, final than that which would serve as an equally powerful deterrent.

right now it's the opposite...

'The history of public debt is full of irony. It rarely follows our ideas of order and justice.' Thomas Piketty

by melo (melometa4(at)gmail.com) on Wed Jan 11th, 2012 at 12:37:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I think Greece is screwed now because any default will be far more messy politically than financially.

Greece is not Iceland, and the Greek people never got the chance to tell the money to fuck off.

So there will be some kind of no-default-then-default spasm, which won't be the clean break it needs to be.

If Greece leaves the Euro zone - or leaves Europe - expect something beyond the usual IMF riots, followed by something even less democratic than the 'technocratic' non-democracy in place at the moment.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Tue Jan 10th, 2012 at 06:59:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Also expect a slew of German commentary about how Greeks don't know how to govern themselves.

tens of millions of people stand to see their lives ruined because the bureaucrats at the ECB don't understand introductory economics -- Dean Baker
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Jan 10th, 2012 at 07:14:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Oh. Has someone suggested Greeks can govern themselves?
by Katrin on Tue Jan 10th, 2012 at 07:59:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Greece is screwed under neo-liberal, predatory capitalism.

So, do something else.   :-)

Some actions that are immediately obvious, to readers of ET - (and probably nobody else):

  1.  Greek government starts paying it's bills in "Tallies"

  2.  Make the "Tallies" be the only form of taxation accepted by the government

  3.  Rehire all the government workers who have been laid off and pay them in "Tallies"

  4.  Institute a significant infra-structure repair & build and pay those people in "Tallies" as well

The goal with these actions is to inject a large amount of "money" into the Greek macro-economy.

Problem is Greek has been running a Current Account deficit for years ... if not decades.  "Tallies," being internal to the Greek economy, can only go so far as a means of exchange for imported (external) goods and services.  From what I can gather, the Greek macro-economy imports ~$69 billion worth of 'stuff' more than what it exports; a large percent of that being oil.  (How much?  Don't know.)  

BUT ... in theory ... "Tallies" used for alternative energy infra-structure build would lower oil imports by shifting electrical energy production from oil to wind, say.  Further, "Tallies" thrown into a electricity powered mass-transit build (trains, trams, etc.) in Athens and simultaneously increasing taxation on gasoline and diesel fuels (paid in "Tallies") would affect, in some way, the necessity for importing oil.

I note Greece is dependent on Tourism so a government run and favorable exchange rate for euros to "Tallies" might prove helpful for accumulating hard-currency (sic).

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Tue Jan 10th, 2012 at 12:37:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The Wörgl solution. Gesellian money.

tens of millions of people stand to see their lives ruined because the bureaucrats at the ECB don't understand introductory economics -- Dean Baker
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Jan 10th, 2012 at 12:49:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]
In Greece it does not even have to be Gesellian. In fact, I would argue that Gesellian money is a crude hack to get around having your fiscal policy institutionally crippled: If you are politically prepared to go Gesellian, then you should also be politically prepared to flat out print money and institute (implicit) hard currency rationing.

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Tue Jan 10th, 2012 at 02:03:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Communism and socialism are not dead, they're sleeping.

Align culture with our nature. Ot else!
by ormondotvos (ormond.otvosnospamgmialcon) on Tue Jan 10th, 2012 at 11:11:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Neither is fascism.

tens of millions of people stand to see their lives ruined because the bureaucrats at the ECB don't understand introductory economics -- Dean Baker
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Jan 11th, 2012 at 05:41:27 AM EST
[ Parent ]
If SYRIZA and the GCP managed to form some sort of electoral front, there is a very good probability that they would win the elections. It's not just the current poll numbers but the fact that people who would otherwise not vote, would be very tempted to do so. If one counts in the Democratic Left, (a right splinter of SYRIZA's largest component) which is booming in polls due to desperate "blairite" PASOK voters (from what was formerly the middle and upper middle class) deciding to leave a discredited ship and finding a "moderate" left they can live with,  the Greens etc... the "harder left" might have good chances of becoming a majority in the next parliament (they are polling already at historical highs). There are two major obstacles to that, though:

1. The only party calling for a united left front is SYRIZA, and they have already started cooperating with various left factions that have abandoned the Socialists when they brought in the IMF, on both a grassroots and a central level. The Communist Party however (without which as the numbers stand today there can't be a left government) is adamant about not collaborating with the reformists who want to beautify capitalism (I kid you not), and are rejecting any collaboration with SYRIZA even at a grass roots level. If that doesn't make sense to you, its because it doesn't make sense generally. This is a party that organizes its own separate demonstrations even when protesting the Israeli bombardment of Gaza. It recently attacked the Communist Party of Spain as being capitalist tools for participating in IU and the Party of the European Left. The only thing that might change their mind is massive pressure from their base, which, though happening at some level, hasn't been strong enough to move them yet.
The Democratic Left meanwhile seems more interested in talking with PASOK cadres and ministers than with their former comrades. It remains temperately anti-troika and anti-austerity, though it is much more likely to compromise with the powers that be, than form a part of a left-radical solution.
2. Even if the issue of collaboration between the left in Greece was somehow resolved (either by the strengthening of one pole, or the popular pressure on all of them), it is not at all a given that elections would not be postponed. The current parliament has been elected for 4 years, until autumn 2013 that is, and despite the conservatives having made a deal that elections will be held March-April at the latest, most of the elites don't like the idea and the conservatives themselves might have a change of heart should they begin to have doubts that they will be the first party come election day. In that case I can easily imagine some sort of "emergency" producing an agreement between the three coalition partners (socialists, conservatives and the far-right) to postpone the expiration of the Papadimos government until the end of the parliamentary period, late 2013, and beyond.

The road of excess leads to the palace of wisdom - William Blake

by talos (mihalis at gmail dot com) on Tue Jan 10th, 2012 at 02:02:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]
talos:
If that doesn't make sense to you, its because it doesn't make sense generally.

I makes sense in a certain communist tradition - things has to get worse for the revolution to appear as it was promised by Marx, his apostel Engels and the holy spirit of the working class!

Sweden's finest (and perhaps only) collaborative, leftist e-newspaper Synapze.se

by A swedish kind of death on Tue Jan 10th, 2012 at 02:19:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]
This might give you a good idea of what KKE is about

The road of excess leads to the palace of wisdom - William Blake
by talos (mihalis at gmail dot com) on Tue Jan 10th, 2012 at 02:54:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]
communist party to me, though I would hope they'd be a bit less rigid than your description, hopefully that is a negotiating stance. Indeed, I find myself having a hard time disagreeing with much of anything said here.

I do hope things turn out well.

The Hun is always either at your throat or at your feet. Winston Churchill

by r------ on Wed Jan 11th, 2012 at 05:04:46 AM EST
[ Parent ]
See their letter to the PCE linked above. It's not a negotiating stance. For the KKE Palme's Sweden and today's Greece are just "capitalism" and any amelioration of it, is a bonus to the system. It's a binary proposition: you either establish 1 or you're at 0. If you form a coalition against austerity you're "hiding the fact" that austerity is but one tool of capitalism....
It is not incidental that the depiction of SYRIZA as EU apologist has to return to the Maastricht treaty (which 9/11 parties of the SYRIZA coalition were against BTW) because that was the only EU treaty that was voted on before Synaspismos' (the main coalition partner) left turn. They do not mention i.e. that SYRIZA voted against the Lisbon treaty. Because they do not believe in the politics of fronts. It is an open question whether popular pressure might change their minds.

The road of excess leads to the palace of wisdom - William Blake
by talos (mihalis at gmail dot com) on Wed Jan 11th, 2012 at 06:01:55 AM EST
[ Parent ]

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