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Well, carbon embedded in imports isn't in the baseline, and isn't in the legal targets, so it's not entirely awful to leave it out of a model of the UK's decarbonisation pathway.  The model does include embedded emissions that are exported.  So a suite of such models, if done for each country, would at least be consistent and globally representative.

Now, one can make a case that a given government does have some influence over the embedded carbon in its imports, through border tariffs and the like. But this is not an economic model, and doesn't model economic responses.

As for changes in industrial energy profiles as a result of the decarbonisation program itself, yes, that's a tough question. Of course, that sort of industrial forecasting is a nightmare in itself, let alone integrating it as just one component in an energy model.

There is a model option for "Growth in industry": to give a first-order approximation for the effect of onshoring turbine manufacture, and maybe (consequently) onshoring some steel and concrete production too, then set "Growth in industry" to A: (UK industry output more than doubles by 2050)

by LondonAnalytics (Andrew Smith) on Tue Oct 16th, 2012 at 08:54:40 AM EST
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