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To decarbonise heating, electrify it (some mix of resistance heating, air-source heat pumps, and ground-source heat pumps), and decarbonise electricity. Or switch people to solid-fuel, and make sure there's a lot of solid biomass. Add solar thermal too, according to taste.
I'm now working on an algorithm for multi-fuel district heating, which will provide some balancing mechanism, and optimise across all the clean sources.
On the subject of electrification, when you electrify rail transport and move transport from road to rail and from diesel to zero-emissions vehicles, the liquid fuel use disappears (good), but there is no increase in electricity use (huh?). Now, the increase in electricity use shouldn't be 1:1, of course, since these modes are much more energy efficient. But it shouldn't be 1:0 either. (This bug is also in the government version.)
On a similar note, can we have separation between electrification of industry, greater energy efficiency of industry and capture and sequestration? The first is off-the-shelf technology. The second tends to be a combination of Oil E. Coyote forecasting and offshoring of manufacturing and heavy industry (which all viable pathways reverses). And the third is the illegitimate love child of a greenwashing exercise and an opiate haze.
Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.
You've got a very good point about splitting out industrial CCS from other industrial interventions. It's a tricky thing, decarbonising industrial processes - for example, what we will do about things like emissions from clinker production for cement. Splitting out the CCS element in the model will help untangle how big an issue that is.
Energy efficiency of industry ... well, I've seen some good stuff in practice - Paris MinesTech and ECLEER do some great work in this field - particularly with heat recovery. And I know of one steel plant that cut 10% of its energy bill just with one improved computer heat flow model. So there is some real potential there.
There's a good economic argument to be made, I think, that industry has inevitably become excessive energy consumers, because the price they directly see for energy has effectively been subsidised, both by government tax breaks and payments to fossil fuel industries, and by the externalities of fossil fuels. And it's reasonable to believe that removing those subsidies would bring about energy-efficiency improvements in industry. But that doesn't tell us how much energy we'd save. I agree with you that a lot of industry forecasts on that question are to be treated with suspicion.
There's a good economic argument to be made, I think, that industry has inevitably become excessive energy consumers, because the price they directly see for energy has effectively been subsidised, both by government tax breaks and payments to fossil fuel industries, and by the externalities of fossil fuels.
There is also that since they are big tech-centered bureacracies you get the combination of middle managers striving to increase their budget and striving to get the coolest machinery (and big is often manly). Both has meant that energy effiency has suffered in favor of energy wasting machines.
Friend of mine did a study for a big industrial company and found a number of energy savings opportunities. The most glaring one was that if they switched off (preferably automatically) the lights in huge areas were no one went except for maintenance (machines controlled form the controll room) they could save a couple of percentages of their electricity bill (which if implemented alone more then paid for the cost of doing the study).
I can't say how much can be saved. Should be studies out there though. Will have a look and post if I find one.
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