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You've got a very good point about splitting out industrial CCS from other industrial interventions. It's a tricky thing, decarbonising industrial processes - for example, what we will do about things like emissions from clinker production for cement. Splitting out the CCS element in the model will help untangle how big an issue that is.
Energy efficiency of industry ... well, I've seen some good stuff in practice - Paris MinesTech and ECLEER do some great work in this field - particularly with heat recovery. And I know of one steel plant that cut 10% of its energy bill just with one improved computer heat flow model. So there is some real potential there.
There's a good economic argument to be made, I think, that industry has inevitably become excessive energy consumers, because the price they directly see for energy has effectively been subsidised, both by government tax breaks and payments to fossil fuel industries, and by the externalities of fossil fuels. And it's reasonable to believe that removing those subsidies would bring about energy-efficiency improvements in industry. But that doesn't tell us how much energy we'd save. I agree with you that a lot of industry forecasts on that question are to be treated with suspicion.
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