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If I am reading this right, UK wind output varies by a factor of four as a matter of course. That does not favor open cycle gas all that strongly, but it does favor combined cycle gas a bunch, and implies a serious problem getting the total wind penetration above.. 30 odd percent? Definitely need a bigger catchment than this if wind is the plan.
by Thomas on Mon Oct 22nd, 2012 at 08:50:18 AM EST
Demand varies by a factor of 3 between the lowest point and the maximum. So when you say 30%, it's 30% of what? GW, GWh, average GW, max. GW, something else?

Wind power
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Mon Oct 22nd, 2012 at 09:26:50 AM EST
[ Parent ]
GWH. It being the only measure that means a damn.

Diurnal variation is an additional problem any clean grid has to address somehow. I am optimistic about the potential to shove consumption around within the day-night cycle - particularly if the shift is consistent.

That is, I do not think either a "All our electricity comes from desertec" or "All our electricity comes from  reactors that do not have throttles at all"  grid would face insurmountable problems. Ask people to charge at a given hour every day and that is not going to be a difficult habit to follow  
 But asking people to not go to work today because it has been a quiet week? That is not going to fly. So large variations in daily supply either require storage that can hold weeks of electricity, or the grid has to get bigger until the variations go the frack away.

by Thomas on Mon Oct 22nd, 2012 at 12:07:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I am optimistic about the potential to shove consumption around within the day-night cycle - particularly if the shift is consistent.

So am I. Chargeable hybrid cars can do most of that.

About the longer term (synoptic) variations, what's left of those after the European supergrid, can be taken care of by gas turbines, but burning electrolytically produced hydrogen from excess wind. Yes, an inefficient solution, but if we're talking about 10% of production we can live with that.

I see you didn't mention the annual cycle: it's a biggie, and nuclear isn't very good at following it. Wind -- or rather, a suitable mix of wind and solar -- is much better. And I'll say again what I said before: most of our energy use that produces CO2, like 3/4, does not involve electricity. Like space heating, where there is a huge savings potential through better building, heat pumps etc. Also, process industry and metallurgy. Bringing down these uses will involve electrification, which will raise electricity consumption, something I do not see in most plans. Something to be aware of.

by mustakissa on Tue Oct 23rd, 2012 at 03:07:37 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Annual cycle: do you mean more work/energy use in 'winter'? More solar available in 'summer'? Or something else completely?
by Number 6 on Wed Oct 24th, 2012 at 09:52:15 AM EST
[ Parent ]
That's an awfully long supply line. You better hope none of the countries providing transport have energy shortages (think : Ukraine)

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II
by eurogreen on Tue Oct 23rd, 2012 at 04:05:05 AM EST
[ Parent ]
It isn't really that long, in HVDC terms... but anyway, I don't expect it will be needed. Before long the Sahara will come to us.
by mustakissa on Tue Oct 23rd, 2012 at 05:04:05 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Or have a problem with local read-the-Koran-too-much rebels. Not that this happens quite regularly in the region.

Now I understand why the Saudians are happy about funding AQMI, obvious self interest against solar...

Un roi sans divertissement est un homme plein de misères

by linca (antonin POINT lucas AROBASE gmail.com) on Sun Oct 28th, 2012 at 12:14:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yes. Real time cost, or cost published in advance: charge at this time of night at this cost.

('Real time' feels like it would lead to Enron-style scenarios, so perhaps monthly or so updates would be better.)

by Number 6 on Wed Oct 24th, 2012 at 09:50:33 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Seems to me that the problem is not so much in getting wind penetration above 30 percent, as in what to do with the over-production that will become increasingly more common then. Spillage is not nice, and you can only export so much to neighbouring countries (where there will tend to be high winds at the same time).

Actually it's an interesting situation: "free" electricity nowhere to go. In Germany (where the same problem is already seen due to grid limitations) they are experimenting with electrolytically producing hydrogen, to be added to the natural gas network. Hmm.

by mustakissa on Mon Oct 22nd, 2012 at 09:54:26 AM EST
[ Parent ]
In a broader regional grid, where the "need to spill wind" is a net over Northern and Western Europe, and so a fraction of the "need to spill wind" in the UK alone, time-shifting Scandinavian conventional hydro-power and a modest amount of added reverse pumped hydro capacity seems like it could cope with quite a lot of storage capacity.

And then there are consumer side technologies to take advantage of a smart grid, which would all kick into top gear when "surplus" power is offered for little more than a transmission infrastructure surcharge.

I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.

by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Mon Oct 22nd, 2012 at 12:06:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]
What's wrong with spilling a bit of excess wind?

Suppose the wind segment cost was zero; in that case, whether you spill or not doesn't matter at all, right? So the importance of utilizing every Watt of wind blowing by is going to depend on the relative cost of the total wind infrastructure compared to the conventional infrastructure...

by asdf on Tue Oct 23rd, 2012 at 11:46:59 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Thomas:
implies a serious problem getting the total wind penetration above.. 30 odd percent?

It means that incorporating up to about 30% is pretty straightforward, and would involve minimum curtailment; and that additional measures need to be taken for penetration above 30% (penetration here being mean wind generation divided by mean demand, on a multi-year basis).   As long as within-country transmission capacity is built to suit the 21st century rather than the 1960s-1990s.

and (looking down...) Thomas again:

So large variations in daily supply either require storage that can hold weeks of electricity,

Which we've already got in Europe. Of the order of hundreds of TWh of storage hydro.

and (looking further down...) mustakissa wrote:

Seems to me that the problem is not so much in getting wind penetration above 30 percent, as in what to do with the over-production that will become increasingly more common then.

It's a brand new ecological niche in the market, where wholesale prices are zero or lower for periods. It will therefore take a bit of time for innovation to fill those niches. And it will: see, for example, the Danish district-heating providers buying big resistance heaters to run at such times. And Highview's cryo-storage, Audi's synthetic methane production, and so on ...

by LondonAnalytics (Andrew Smith) on Tue Oct 23rd, 2012 at 11:23:29 AM EST
[ Parent ]

for example, the Danish district-heating providers buying big resistance heaters to run at such times

Tut-tut, how wasteful. Haven't they heard of heat pumps?

District heating/cooling by heat pumps

by mustakissa on Wed Oct 24th, 2012 at 02:22:49 AM EST
[ Parent ]
by mustakissa on Wed Oct 24th, 2012 at 02:29:49 AM EST
[ Parent ]
If it is wasteful depends on the need to handle spillage and the capacity to store the heat. If they for some reason can't store more then they get from resistance heaters and the need to handle spillage is great, well then resistance heaters makes sense as combined heat/waste mechanism.

Sweden's finest (and perhaps only) collaborative, leftist e-newspaper Synapze.se
by A swedish kind of death on Wed Oct 24th, 2012 at 03:50:31 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Of course they've heard of heat pumps. And in many cases a heat pump is entirely the wrong solution.

The much under-rated resistance heater has many attributes that make it ideal for this purpose.

They can be turned on and off quickly.
They're very cheap. So when they're used for hundreds of hours a year, rather than thousands, their cost per kWh is much much lower than heat pumps.
They're very reliable, and need minimal servicing.

So, a heat pump would be terribly wasteful in this situation, of being a backup to the main boiler, to be used in emergencies or at times of very very low electricity costs; and a resistance heater is perfect.

by LondonAnalytics (Andrew Smith) on Wed Oct 24th, 2012 at 08:06:40 AM EST
[ Parent ]

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