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Where this will lead, I don't know. As usual, I am not too optimistic, but it is worth to bear in mind that political upheavals on a scale of 1-2 years or even months happen regularly in this region. So I would neither close out the formation and victory of a united democratic opposition front, nor the victory of a new neolib-tainted or leftist party, nor the victory of a resurgent Socialist Party, nor a victory of Jobbik in a rapid recession, nor another punch-out Fidesz victory with a large majority (and not just the gerrymandered election system) behind it.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Tue Oct 23rd, 2012 at 03:36:18 PM EST
I went along myself, but didn't hang around beyond the initial speeches which, as you say, were quite badly delivered and lacking in content. The turnout was pretty good, with fantastic weather for late October... I also walked past the Jobbik rally, which seemed to have a higher proportion of young people than both the government and the Milla demonstrations. Though there were quite a few people at all of these, I suspect the vast majority of the city was intent on lapping up the last of the autumn sun, at the end of the four-day weekend.

Bajnai's vision appears very minimalistic, as one would expect. You're absolutely right - much of the detail lurks around the edges. Yet what strikes me is that very little of the Bajnai-Gyurcsány axis is based on an indigenous growth strategy, the idea that somehow Hungary's resources, human and material, can be somehow utilised in some new or clever way. Whilst we haven't seen his full programme, so far it seems very conventional MOR neoliberal stuff. This in itself seems very risky, given the unstable nature of various externalities. I wonder where the domestic and cultural elements are, in this form of politics?

by car05 on Tue Oct 23rd, 2012 at 05:24:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]
what strikes me is that very little of the Bajnai-Gyurcsány axis is based on an indigenous growth strategy

At least in Bajnai's speech, I couldn't recognise an economic program (unless his mentioning of Poland and Slovakia as countries in the region passing us by economically counts as an indication of one). At any rate, what Bajnai says matters little as long as the two biggest parties in his desired unified democratic opposition power basis, that is both the Socialists (MSzP) and the Greens (LMP) want to contest the 2014 elections on their own (which as things stand would guarantee them opposition status). Then again, I didn't get the impression that either of them seriously considered a new path, and truly realised that the post-1990 recipe of attracting foreign capital by aspiring to be the best pupils of the IMF isn't working. (In fact I was dismayed to hear Szolidaritás leader Péter Kónya mention foreign capital as a basis for the development of the Hungarian economy undercut by Orbán, but not mentioning the flat tax.)

An issue related to indigenous growth did feature in several speeches, though: the brain drain of educated young people, which is on-going in spite of the government's new laws aimed at tying down students in Hungary. (An anecdotal evidence is that the other day I overheard the discussion of a conductor and a passenger, both mothers, about their wish for their children to escape the malaise with the help of their language skills, even if it will be even worse for those who stay behind.) So people are at least aware of the 'human capital' part.

I also walked past the Jobbik rally, which seemed to have a higher proportion of young people than both the government and the Milla demonstrations.

No surprise there, it started as a youth party and still predominantly poisons young minds (which only makes their still double-digits figures in polls even more scary, even if their numbers significantly reduced since the summer according to multiple polls). Perhaps the one difference in protester demographics was the wider class and settlement type coverage of the Milla protest, that is more working-class and more rural faces (presumably due to the joint organisation with Szolidaritás).

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Wed Oct 24th, 2012 at 04:16:23 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I added some details: the Family Guy episode, the three million beggars, and the dissatisfaction among the pro-government protesters on the train home.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Wed Oct 24th, 2012 at 03:23:47 AM EST
[ Parent ]
From reports, it appears that the most notable event of the pro-government mass rally (again organised by the group of pro-Fidesz far-right journalists under the Orwellian name "Peace March") was when Orbán welcomed a 100-year-old woman on stage whose Slovakian citizenship was revoked when he took up the Hungarian one. The backstory is that, in another move designed to get more voters for Fidesz, parliament adopted a new citizenship law in 2010 which allows ethnic Hungarians in neighbouring countries to request citizenship. Slovakia's parliament retaliated by changing their citizenship law too, adding the automatic revocation of Slovakian citizenship upon the adoption of another citizenship that wasn't declared beforehand. The issue, of course, has nothing to do with 1956; and Orbán again cynically uses the results of a mess he himself created to stoke even more nationalist hate.

News reports in non-government-aligned media also confirm that turnout at yesterday's event was smaller than the other two pro-government mass rallies earlier this year. Yet, the numbers game is alive and well: police first issued an estimate of 150,000, then corrected it to match their estimate of the first pro-government rally at 400,000, a number that was unreal already back then.

At the Jobbik rally, reportedly attended by 3,000, the Jobbik leader sought to separate themselves from members of "the 1989 political elite" (that includes Fidesz leaders), and count himself into the "2006 generation", even though Jobbik had little to do with the 2006 events (the far-right street riots in the wake of the leaking of an internal speech by then PM Ferenc Gyurcsány in which he said "I lied").

Police proudly announced the detainment of one man at the Jobbik rally for anti-Semitic incitement of hatred. Which is no more than an excuse: On one hand, speeches at the Jobbik rally were full of allusions to anti-Semitic lore (including a recent one that interprets a quip by Israeli President Shimon Peres as an Israeli strategy to take over Hungary by buying up land). On the other hand, anti-Semitic incitement of hatred would have been a reason for police to detain the entire counter-protest of the right-of-Jobbik fascists on the sidelines of the Milla protest (which reportedly included a Jobbik MP, though), judging from a video by a reporter of web news site Index.hu (who was surrounded, tossed around and punched in the eye at the end): chants included "Die, Jews! and "We take you camping in Auschwitz".

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Wed Oct 24th, 2012 at 05:23:14 AM EST
[ Parent ]
We may soon have a similar government here in Tokyo, unfortunately.

I will become a patissier, God willing.
by tuasfait on Wed Oct 24th, 2012 at 08:02:25 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I wouldn't be surprised, from what I hear ...

Science without religion is lame, religion without science is blind...Albert Einstein
by vbo on Wed Oct 24th, 2012 at 11:21:50 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Tell us more!

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Wed Oct 24th, 2012 at 01:38:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]
What a mess...pretty scary...

Science without religion is lame, religion without science is blind...Albert Einstein
by vbo on Wed Oct 24th, 2012 at 11:20:40 AM EST
[ Parent ]

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