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I rec'd you out of European solidarity - but I think that Nate Silver will turn out to be right - but in a particular way.

Silver's basic (unspoken) thesis is that absent a live boy or a dead girl, nothing much changes the fundamentals - and a large scale averaging tells us that the fundamentals in this era are:

47% Dem : 47% Repub

These voters are basically fixed, they aren't changing without major internal realignment of the parties.

So there's 6% swingable and this year they are basically 2% Romney, 4% Obama. That's how it looked back in June and all the campaign has done is introduce some blips and noise, but after all the convention bounces and Mittmentum, it's settled back to that. And already before Sandy there are virtually no "undecideds" - most people with the motivation to vote know who they are going to vote for.

So you're right that after all is said and done with Sandy, Obama will likely win 51 to 49. But Nate is right that this is likely what was going to happen anyway.

by Metatone (metatone [a|t] gmail (dot) com) on Wed Oct 31st, 2012 at 04:29:46 AM EST
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