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SUN Voters to give victory to Obama? | 22 comments (22 topical, editorial, 0 hidden)
Re: SUN Voters to give victory to Obama? (none / 1)
I had a look at what people are saying of the house. First this:

Predictions 10/6: House of (un)Representatives

I have evaluated incumbency and redistricting advantages quantitatively. I now believe that these two phenomena contribute approximately equally to an overall advantage of R+2.5+-1.0%. In other words, Democrats need to win the popular vote by 2.5+-1.0% in order to achieve near-parity in House seats. I was wrong about thinking there was little tilt in the playing field. It's substantial.

Looking at Huffington Post's average of polls for generic ballot it is essentially even, which gives the victory to the Republicans. I don't know to how large degree results follow the generic ballot polls.

Sweden's finest (and perhaps only) collaborative, leftist e-newspaper Synapze.se

by A swedish kind of death on Mon Nov 5th, 2012 at 07:12:55 AM EST
Re: SUN Voters to give victory to Obama? (none / 1)
Nate Silver has estimated that due to gerrymandering it may take a 3-4% advantage in the generic polls to actually generate a majority on Congress, and the generic Democratic vote has tended to lag Obama's vote in the polls.

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by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Mon Nov 5th, 2012 at 07:27:43 AM EST
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SUN Voters to give victory to Obama? | 22 comments (22 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)
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