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SUN Voters to give victory to Obama? | 22 comments (22 topical, editorial, 0 hidden)
Re: SUN Voters to give victory to Obama? (none / 1)
Obama increased the % of the voting age population actually voting to 58% in 2008 - way above the recent historical range of 49-55% I referenced in the diary. I would expect this figure to go up again in 2012 - based on the ground game strategy I highlighted in this diary.

To take your argument to its logical conclusion: If 15% of the population is unemployed and has a lower propensity to vote and the 85% employed always vote in their own interests, why wouldn't he "natural" unemployment rate rise to 50% whereby the 50% employed vote more and always in their own interests?

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 07:25:21 AM EST
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Re: SUN Voters to give victory to Obama? (none / 1)
Thank you for pointing out the rising participation since 2000. I hadn't seen those numbers, and I find it impressive.

My next question is, where's the pay-off? Firstly, in terms of identifiable better outcomes for SUN voters; and secondly (and circularly) in terms of better results for the left?

I'm not being facetious : I seem to remember that the registration/voting drive for Kerry in 2004 backfired (insofar as a majority of those new voters actually voted for Bush).

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 07:44:26 AM EST
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Re: SUN Voters to give victory to Obama? (none / 0)
Strange as it may seem, Obama IS the mainstream left, as far as the US is concerned, at least for the next few years.

I haven't seen data for how new registrants voted in 2004 crosstabulated for who sought to ensure they were registered.  But as I understand it, the Obama ground game is targeting persuadable and unlikely but supportive voters and registering them. They are not  approaching, persuading, or registering people who have no propensity to vote for them based on a variety of indicators determined empirically in advance. See here for long, verbose, and wonky details

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 08:41:47 AM EST
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OK (none / 1)
That article gives good reasons to hope that the polling underestimates Obama's support.

And a glimmer of hope for Congress, I guess.

It will certainly be encouraging for democracy if activists can beat PACs.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 09:27:27 AM EST
[ Parent ]

SUN Voters to give victory to Obama? | 22 comments (22 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)
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