(from current 8% in polls)

Is there an aggregator site for polls in Greece? If not, can you link to/give us the latest poll(s)?

Pasok will return to above 30%... Despite the silly polls, I guess Samaras will get above 40% and closer to 45%

Does that mean you think voters will not make a connection between Pasok, ND and the approval of austerity by their MPs, or that you think the majority at least tolerates austerity itself?

_{*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

I disagree on this. PASOK is a non-existant party. The society it organized around it no longer exists. If there was a way to return to the status quo ante what you say might be probable. There isn't. Greece is no longer a middle class society, more than 50% of the population are already either precarious workers or will become soon. There is no room, no method for PASOK to re-emerge as a major party. They cannot recreate the clientilist system that was the core of PASOK's power - despite having very strong support in the media establishment. It is very possible that in the mid-term DIM.AR (Democratic Left) will become the vehicle of a less corrupt and delegitimized Center-Left (it is already acquiring socialist MPs and politicians at a growing rate).
I'm from Iraklion, PASOK's most faithful heartland. Very few in town are even considering "retuning" to PASOK, and the party polls I've seen with Venizelos as the new leader are only marginally better for PASOK i.e. around 10% (but that was before the current memorandum). It is not a coincidence that exactly in Iraklion were the proportionally larger demonstrations outside of Athens and violent attacks against the two political parties...

I don't think moderate voters exist anymore as such, at least not as a determining quantity. Poor and moderate do not mix. I think Samaras is old news. If (when) the conservatives regroup, they will be a much more populist and much more nationalist party - which is why they elected Samaras in the first place...

I note also that the Chryssi Avgi Nazis will enter parliament, and personally I think they will achieve more than 5%, unless Kammenos forms a credible non-fascist nationalist alternative perhaps.

The road of excess leads to the palace of wisdom - William Blake