Greece: they must not pass | 453 comments (453 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)

Re: Greece: they must not pass (none / 1)

So what happens with the 43 PASOK and ND MPs who were expelled from their parties? What do they do now?

tens of millions of people stand to see their lives ruined because the bureaucrats at the ECB don't understand introductory economics -- Dean Baker

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Feb 12th, 2012 at 07:11:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]

An Orbán for Greece (4.00 / 6)

In Pasok, there is an open question of whom will control the party after/if George Papandreou steps down as a president. To make an analogy with Argentina, it is now even more probable that a Menem rather than a Kirchner will get the party, With leadership question settled, Pasok will return to above 30% in the actual coming election (from current 8% in polls). At the moment it is not probable that the NO dissidents will form a new party (it would be suicidal). At least, there is no such talk.

In New Democracy, things are different. I believe that more or less that was a theatrical performance. With the dissidents, Samaras appears now much more centrist than before so he will gain moderate voters. Just before the election, he will accept back the 'black sheeps' for the greater good. The YES dissidents from LAOS are also expected/rumored to join the conservative ND party. Despite the silly polls, I guess Samaras will get above 40% and closer to 45%. Then we will have an Orbán in Greece.

LAOS will collapse and the left parties will return to their normal historical high i.e. 14-15% collectively.

"Eurozone leaders have turned a €50bn Greek solvency problem into a €1,000bn existential crisis for the European Union." David Miliband

by Kostis Papadimitriou on Mon Feb 13th, 2012 at 02:21:38 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: An Orbán for Greece (none / 1)

(from current 8% in polls)

Is there an aggregator site for polls in Greece? If not, can you link to/give us the latest poll(s)?

Pasok will return to above 30%... Despite the silly polls, I guess Samaras will get above 40% and closer to 45%

Does that mean you think voters will not make a connection between Pasok, ND and the approval of austerity by their MPs, or that you think the majority at least tolerates austerity itself?

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Mon Feb 13th, 2012 at 04:16:46 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: An Orbán for Greece (4.00 / 5)

PASOK, ND,CP, SYRIZA, LAOS(far-right), Greens, Democratic LEft, Neolibs, Nazis, Etc.

That was before the new colonial memorandum however, when people still believed that Samaras could cut a better deal... This is also a projection, among likely voters. 30% declare that they will abstain. The raw percentage of PASOK voters among the general population is certainly under 5%...

The road of excess leads to the palace of wisdom - William Blake

by talos (mihalis at gmail dot com) on Mon Feb 13th, 2012 at 07:38:27 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: An Orbán for Greece (4.00 / 7)

I disagree on this. PASOK is a non-existant party. The society it organized around it no longer exists. If there was a way to return to the status quo ante what you say might be probable. There isn't. Greece is no longer a middle class society, more than 50% of the population are already either precarious workers or will become soon. There is no room, no method for PASOK to re-emerge as a major party. They cannot recreate the clientilist system that was the core of PASOK's power - despite having very strong support in the media establishment. It is very possible that in the mid-term DIM.AR (Democratic Left) will become the vehicle of a less corrupt and delegitimized Center-Left (it is already acquiring socialist MPs and politicians at a growing rate).
I'm from Iraklion, PASOK's most faithful heartland. Very few in town are even considering "retuning" to PASOK, and the party polls I've seen with Venizelos as the new leader are only marginally better for PASOK i.e. around 10% (but that was before the current memorandum). It is not a coincidence that exactly in Iraklion were the proportionally larger demonstrations outside of Athens and violent attacks against the two political parties...

I don't think moderate voters exist anymore as such, at least not as a determining quantity. Poor and moderate do not mix. I think Samaras is old news. If (when) the conservatives regroup, they will be a much more populist and much more nationalist party - which is why they elected Samaras in the first place...

I note also that the Chryssi Avgi Nazis will enter parliament, and personally I think they will achieve more than 5%, unless Kammenos forms a credible non-fascist nationalist alternative perhaps.

The road of excess leads to the palace of wisdom - William Blake

by talos (mihalis at gmail dot com) on Mon Feb 13th, 2012 at 07:28:03 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: An Orbán for Greece (none / 0)

that economics minister better start jogging practice. well-fed fellow!

'The history of public debt is full of irony. It rarely follows our ideas of order and justice.' Thomas Piketty

by melo (melometa4(at)gmail.com) on Mon Feb 13th, 2012 at 07:40:00 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: An Orbán for Greece (4.00 / 3)

Well, Pasok will re-group after the leadership question is solved. Pasok basis is the private and public sector employees. So it's mainly lower middle class, which not only still exists but it expands as parts of the upper middle class are re-homogenising with lower middle class. But that is a long talk and it's not confined to Greece.

For Dimar let me have a different opinion. It's a typical poll bubble created by the media and fed with the dissapointment of voters. We' ve seen that before in Greece, France, Germany etc. Maybe an one-off nice election performance and that's it. Moreover, Dimar is currently heavily funded by a media and shipping tycoon, a fellow Kretan of yours, as a means to support Samaras by weakening Pasok. We' ve seen that before with a previous leader of the same fraction of the Left.

I wish things would be as you describe them, but they aren't.

Anyway, election day is coming (and with it Darkness).

"Eurozone leaders have turned a €50bn Greek solvency problem into a €1,000bn existential crisis for the European Union." David Miliband

by Kostis Papadimitriou on Tue Feb 14th, 2012 at 12:35:21 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: An Orbán for Greece (none / 1)

Private and Public sector employees, are now mostly precarious workers, and poor by yesterday's standards. I think we should forget the previous social structure of Greece, that is unless there is some sort of a fight back. PASOK has nothing to offer to its former clients. It's political remnants are heading to all conceivable political directions.

DIMAR is a bubble. I agree. But if there are elections soon, it will be a bubble that will have secured political clout. This will preserve it and transform it - maybe. I'm not sure. In Argentina the local PASOK created its own left offshoots and helped society. I think that the current PASOK is even more deeply corrupt than the Peronists, if one could imagine that. Should some of the not-so-obviously-corrupt cadres start their own party, perhaps they might preserve the party. Perhaps.

The road of excess leads to the palace of wisdom - William Blake

by talos (mihalis at gmail dot com) on Tue Feb 14th, 2012 at 05:28:26 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: An Orbán for Greece (4.00 / 3)

I think what you and Kostis are disagreeing about is the extent to which the patronage network which PASOK represents is still operative, or even dormant, rather than having been destroyed beyond repair.

Part of the point is that alternative political parties need to be part of a patronage network or they will be a bubble. After one or two election cycles they will fizzle out and whatever's left of the old PASOK network will pick up where PASOK left off in 2009.

tens of millions of people stand to see their lives ruined because the bureaucrats at the ECB don't understand introductory economics -- Dean Baker

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Feb 14th, 2012 at 06:09:19 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Greece: they must not pass | 453 comments (453 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)

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