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In New Democracy, things are different. I believe that more or less that was a theatrical performance. With the dissidents, Samaras appears now much more centrist than before so he will gain moderate voters. Just before the election, he will accept back the 'black sheeps' for the greater good. The YES dissidents from LAOS are also expected/rumored to join the conservative ND party. Despite the silly polls, I guess Samaras will get above 40% and closer to 45%. Then we will have an Orbán in Greece.
LAOS will collapse and the left parties will return to their normal historical high i.e. 14-15% collectively. "Eurozone leaders have turned a €50bn Greek solvency problem into a €1,000bn existential crisis for the European Union." David Miliband
Is there an aggregator site for polls in Greece? If not, can you link to/give us the latest poll(s)?
Pasok will return to above 30%... Despite the silly polls, I guess Samaras will get above 40% and closer to 45%
Does that mean you think voters will not make a connection between Pasok, ND and the approval of austerity by their MPs, or that you think the majority at least tolerates austerity itself? *Lunatic*, n. One whose delusions are out of fashion.
That was before the new colonial memorandum however, when people still believed that Samaras could cut a better deal... This is also a projection, among likely voters. 30% declare that they will abstain. The raw percentage of PASOK voters among the general population is certainly under 5%... The road of excess leads to the palace of wisdom - William Blake
I don't think moderate voters exist anymore as such, at least not as a determining quantity. Poor and moderate do not mix. I think Samaras is old news. If (when) the conservatives regroup, they will be a much more populist and much more nationalist party - which is why they elected Samaras in the first place...
I note also that the Chryssi Avgi Nazis will enter parliament, and personally I think they will achieve more than 5%, unless Kammenos forms a credible non-fascist nationalist alternative perhaps. The road of excess leads to the palace of wisdom - William Blake
For Dimar let me have a different opinion. It's a typical poll bubble created by the media and fed with the dissapointment of voters. We' ve seen that before in Greece, France, Germany etc. Maybe an one-off nice election performance and that's it. Moreover, Dimar is currently heavily funded by a media and shipping tycoon, a fellow Kretan of yours, as a means to support Samaras by weakening Pasok. We' ve seen that before with a previous leader of the same fraction of the Left.
I wish things would be as you describe them, but they aren't.
Anyway, election day is coming (and with it Darkness). "Eurozone leaders have turned a €50bn Greek solvency problem into a €1,000bn existential crisis for the European Union." David Miliband
DIMAR is a bubble. I agree. But if there are elections soon, it will be a bubble that will have secured political clout. This will preserve it and transform it - maybe. I'm not sure. In Argentina the local PASOK created its own left offshoots and helped society. I think that the current PASOK is even more deeply corrupt than the Peronists, if one could imagine that. Should some of the not-so-obviously-corrupt cadres start their own party, perhaps they might preserve the party. Perhaps. The road of excess leads to the palace of wisdom - William Blake
Part of the point is that alternative political parties need to be part of a patronage network or they will be a bubble. After one or two election cycles they will fizzle out and whatever's left of the old PASOK network will pick up where PASOK left off in 2009. tens of millions of people stand to see their lives ruined because the bureaucrats at the ECB don't understand introductory economics -- Dean Baker
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