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In Pasok, there is an open question of whom will control the party after/if George Papandreou steps down as a president. To make an analogy with Argentina, it is now even more probable that a Menem rather than a Kirchner will get the party, With leadership question settled, Pasok will return to above 30% in the actual coming election (from current 8% in polls). At the moment it is not probable that the NO dissidents will form a new party (it would be suicidal). At least, there is no such talk.

In New Democracy, things are different. I believe that more or less that was a theatrical performance. With the dissidents, Samaras appears now much more centrist than before so he will gain moderate voters. Just before the election, he will accept back the 'black sheeps' for the greater good. The YES dissidents from LAOS are also expected/rumored to join the conservative ND party. Despite the silly polls, I guess Samaras will get above 40% and closer to 45%. Then we will have an Orbán in Greece.

LAOS will collapse and the left parties will return to their normal historical high i.e. 14-15% collectively.

"Eurozone leaders have turned a €50bn Greek solvency problem into a €1,000bn existential crisis for the European Union." David Miliband

by Kostis Papadimitriou on Mon Feb 13th, 2012 at 02:21:38 AM EST
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