Gysi on the EU "rescue package" for Greece | 55 comments (54 topical, 1 editorial, 0 hidden)

Opposition? (4.00 / 6)

Face it: There is only one left-of-centre opposition party, not three. Greens and SPD are competing with each other who is the best coalition partner for the CDU.

by Katrin on Tue Feb 28th, 2012 at 06:36:48 PM EST

Re: Opposition? (none / 1)

Left-of-centre is a relative statement. Given that CDU+FDP have a governing majority, this pretty much defines SPD and Greens as left-of-centre.

The SPD, like the rest of Europe's Social Democratic parties, is now Social Liberal. Just like the Greens. They differ in the strength of their ecological positions.

The Left parties are mostly former Communists who have now moved into the Social Democratic space.

But you know all this.

There are three stories about the euro crisis: the Republican story, the German story, and the truth. -- Paul Krugman

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Feb 28th, 2012 at 06:56:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Opposition? (none / 0)

I don't think they've really moved in the social democratic space so much as they're stayed where they were while most western european parties lurched the the right.

And now, perhaps, we see who are friends have been all this time.

The Hun is always either at your throat or at your feet. Winston Churchill

by r------ on Tue Feb 28th, 2012 at 07:39:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Opposition? (none / 1)

redstar:

they're stayed where they were

So no change in W European Communists sparked by the disappearance of the USSR? In the PCF, for example, just the change of leadership from Georges Marchais to Robert Hue was pretty colossal...

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Wed Feb 29th, 2012 at 02:11:47 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Major changes in policy orientation? (none / 0)

I don't think so, really. There's the change in style, of course, and in every political tendancy there are evolutions in policy over time. And the disappearance of the Soviet Union removed a major funding source and meant Georges Marchais' visits to Moscow wouldn't be repeated by Robert Hue.

The evolution to Euro-communism happened under Marchais, not after him, his statements on Afghanistan (and he in retrospect turns out to have been 100% right about Soviet intervention there) being used notably by the PS for electoral reasons to prove otherwise. Similar evolutions were occuring elsewhere, PCI notably.

The big changes came in the eastern parties, and Gysi is emblematic of this.

The Hun is always either at your throat or at your feet. Winston Churchill

by r------ on Wed Feb 29th, 2012 at 03:31:09 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Opposition? (4.00 / 2)

In the case of Die Linke, and the Eastern PDS in particular, the shift to Social Democracy was quite drastic and explicit. In the case of the Western WASG, you could argue it was keeping the traditional SPD positions where the SPD was moving right under Schröder.

But we split hairs...

There are three stories about the euro crisis: the Republican story, the German story, and the truth. -- Paul Krugman

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Feb 29th, 2012 at 03:49:31 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Opposition? (4.00 / 5)

The economic programme of Die Linke is something the entire middle class could support, if they weren't ideologically blinded. It's Keynesian with even a dose of ordoliberalism, but not communist.

by Katrin on Wed Feb 29th, 2012 at 04:11:02 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Opposition? (none / 0)

Katrin:

Greens and SPD are competing with each other who is the best coalition partner for the CDU

Sadly the impression I got.

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Wed Feb 29th, 2012 at 01:38:29 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Opposition? (4.00 / 2)

If SDP instead tied up the Greens good and properly by giving them environmental concessions the CDU will not, then SDP would be assured power as FDP are going to crash out of Bundestag. But I guess the self-interest of the party is trumphed by the self-interest of the politicians for an after-politics career.

Sweden's finest (and perhaps only) collaborative, leftist e-newspaper Synapze.se

by A swedish kind of death on Wed Feb 29th, 2012 at 03:53:17 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Opposition? (4.00 / 5)

SPD and Greens can't hope for a majority. They would need Die Linke for that and this is out of the question. It's not a sad thing. When they had a majority they introduced the Hartz legislation and took part in the Yugoslavia and the Afghanistan war. I prefer honest conservatives over neoliberals in social democratic or green disguise.

by Katrin on Wed Feb 29th, 2012 at 04:31:34 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Without wanting to be overly indiscreet (4.00 / 3)

in my question, are you in Die Linke or are a supporter?

If so, it would be really nice if you could keep us informed on what the party is doing in Germany. We had Oskar Lafontaine in Metz with Jean-Luc Mélenchon in December, I should have diaried it, so I guess a little bit the pot calling the kettle black, but anyway, humble request.

The Hun is always either at your throat or at your feet. Winston Churchill

by r------ on Wed Feb 29th, 2012 at 04:37:26 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Without wanting to be overly indiscreet (4.00 / 8)

No, I just find Die Linke is the least horrible party we have, and so the only one I can vote for. I have no special insight in their doings.

The only party I have ever been a member of is the Greens, of which I was a founding member, and like most founding members I was disgusted at their march to the right and left it.

by Katrin on Wed Feb 29th, 2012 at 04:52:51 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Without wanting to be overly indiscreet (none / 1)

Which year have you left, which single event (if there was one) made you leave? (As far as I know, the first waves of the bleeding of the left wing were in the eighties already.)

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Wed Feb 29th, 2012 at 08:42:29 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Without wanting to be overly indiscreet (4.00 / 2)

It was a slow process of growing anger, not one single incident. I left in 1990 or 91, after I had come to the conclusion that I wouldn't be able to alter anything.

by Katrin on Wed Feb 29th, 2012 at 10:00:42 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Opposition? (4.00 / 4)

The calculation is not made with the governing parties and SPD and Greens only. There are the Left Party and your Pirates, too. Before the ascendancy of the Pirates, polls showed a safe Red-Green majority. The Pirates took that away, and then (thanks to Merkel's Euro grandstanding and a now amost completely uncriticial media all the way from Süddeutsche to the right I'm afraid) the CDU started to pick up. In the latest poll, from Forsa, CDU gets 38%, SPD 26%, Greens 14%, Left Party 8%, Pirates 7%, FDP would fail at 3% – so parties uniting about 46-47% of the vote between them will have a governing majority. The problem is that neither the SPD nor the Greens show willingess to consider either the Left Party or the Pirates. That strategic stupidity and cowardice in the face of potential red-socks campaigns leaves Merkel with all the options.

(Personally, I am thinking that Red-Green with both Left Party and Pirates entering parliament as opposition would be the best option: it wouldn't force the Left Party and the Pirates into foul compromises as coalition members, while as opposition parties they could draw the Overton Window left.)

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Wed Feb 29th, 2012 at 08:40:22 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Opposition? (4.00 / 2)

Unrealistic. Red/green could--perhaps--get a majority if Die Linke didn't exist. The Pirates must grow up and I am not sure they will manage that. At present they are a one issue party.

38% for the CDU is a lot more in seats, by the way: the CDU will get more direct seats than that again. I am hoping for a result that would theoretically allow red/red/green, which SPD and Greens will then reject. Should remove some illusions some voters still suffer from.

by Katrin on Wed Feb 29th, 2012 at 10:12:30 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Opposition? (4.00 / 2)

Red/green could--perhaps--get a majority if Die Linke didn't exist.

I don't think it depends on the Left Party alone, you need the Pirates. Right before the Berlin elections, the SPD and the Greens had about 48-50% in polls, which would have been enough for a comfortable majority considering the parties failing to enter, especially considering that the SPD was fairly close to the CDU and thus the overhang mandates would likely have been distributed more evenly.

the CDU will get more direct seats than that again

Let's check the figures! 38% of the vote, with parties entering parliament adding up to 93%, would mean 40.9% of the non-overhang seats in parliament, or 244 seats in a 598-seat parliament. If the CDU/CSU could reproduce its 2009 record of 24 overhang mandates again (unlikely with such high numbers) with no overhangs for anyone else, that would give them 43.1% of seats – a 2.2 percentage point gain, which equates to the same aggregate loss for all others. Meanwhile the majority of 312 seats, if held by a coalition without the CDU/CSU, would be 52.2% of the 598 non-overhang seats and thus 48.5% of the vote. So with the Forsa poll used for the calculation, only an SPD-Greens-Left Party-Pirates coalition could put the CDU in opposition...

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Wed Feb 29th, 2012 at 12:59:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Opposition? (none / 0)

So with the Forsa poll used for the calculation, only an SPD-Greens-Left Party-Pirates coalition could put the CDU in opposition...

Provided the Pirates can keep their results stable. It's possible, but by no means certain.

by Katrin on Wed Feb 29th, 2012 at 02:31:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Opposition? (4.00 / 2)

Katrin:

The Pirates must grow up and I am not sure they will manage that. At present they are a one issue party.

I think they will but it will be a slow process. The Berlin success has at least over here strenghten the broad approch (getting a full program) over the narrow approach (running just on key issues). But it will take time and I hope for their sake that they are not cast into government their first period in parliament. They need to learn to handle the daily compromises of parliament before they have a chance of surviving government.

Sweden's finest (and perhaps only) collaborative, leftist e-newspaper Synapze.se

by A swedish kind of death on Wed Feb 29th, 2012 at 03:31:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Opposition? (none / 0)

Why did the Greens overtake the Left Party again? Did they pick up FDP voters, is there a heightened environmental awareness, or what?

There are three stories about the euro crisis: the Republican story, the German story, and the truth. -- Paul Krugman

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Feb 29th, 2012 at 10:16:47 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Opposition? (4.00 / 2)

I think they also got a lot of mileage out of the S-21 protests.

by generic on Wed Feb 29th, 2012 at 10:28:37 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Opposition? (none / 0)

I'm less in touch with Germany than others here, but I have heard anecdotally about some younger FDP types shifting towards the Greens.

by Metatone (metatone [a|t] gmail (dot) com) on Wed Feb 29th, 2012 at 11:31:03 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Opposition? (4.00 / 3)

It wasn't a single trend, nor a monotonic one.

Right after the 2009 elections, the SPD was shedding voters, the Left Party was overtaken by then.
The FDP meltdown started at the end of 2009.
Stuttgart 21 protests boosted the Greens above 20% in autumn 2010, but that melted away again.
Fukushima put them closer to 25%.
Several problems peaking in the debacle in the Berlin elections (commonly explained with supporters being scared away by allusions to a CDU-Greens coalition option) cut support back to the 15% region. After Berlin, the Pirates exploded federally, taking from the Greens and the Left Party.

Also note that there are simultaneous movements, e.g. a decrease in FDP and increase for the Pirates could mask a combination of FDP -> CDU -> SPD -> Greens -> Left Party -> Pirates movements.

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Wed Feb 29th, 2012 at 12:29:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Opposition? (4.00 / 3)

DoDo:

Also note that there are simultaneous movements, e.g. a decrease in FDP and increase for the Pirates could mask a combination of FDP -> CDU -> SPD -> Greens -> Left Party -> Pirates movements.

Remembering the Berlin exit polls, FDP voters moved primarily to CDU and to not-voting, while the Pirates picked up a lot form did-not-vote-in-last-election.

With about 80% voting you have a pool of 20% non-voters that contains longer movements to and from parties.

Sweden's finest (and perhaps only) collaborative, leftist e-newspaper Synapze.se

by A swedish kind of death on Wed Feb 29th, 2012 at 03:27:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Opposition? (4.00 / 2)

Interestingly, according to the taz, Black-Green is currently the pre-occupation of Özdemir and his circle only and the other leaders (even Gauck fan Trittin, to my surprise) were violently against, as a lesson from the Berlin debacle. That doesn't change the fact that they drifted rather far to the right on the economy and at least superficiality eigns regarding Gauck, however. On the other hand, I won't trust even the Left Party to do the Greens' part on the environment, see the issue of brown coal.

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Wed Feb 29th, 2012 at 08:28:27 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Opposition? (4.00 / 5)

Don't wish to hijack this important diary, but perhaps we're about to see how energy and environmental policy will affect the next state and federal elections.

The Bundeskabinett today came out with the new regs on the EEG, which on the surface seem to affect wind as well as solar. The Bundesverband Windenergie E.V. headlined their press statement, "Federal Government Torpedoes It's Own Energy Transition."

We'll see what happens if the Pirates decided to champion renewables, and if the Greens begin to see the reality of their black hopes.

"Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage." - Anaïs Nin

by Crazy Horse on Wed Feb 29th, 2012 at 10:30:58 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Gysi on the EU "rescue package" for Greece | 55 comments (54 topical, 1 editorial, 0 hidden)

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