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... and guess what: another poll today gives a radically different result: Hollande 30% (stable), Sarkozy 27% (-2%).

Sarkozy-Hollande: télescopage de sondages - Libération Sarkozy Holland: Polls collide - Liberation
Sauf que 18 heures plus tard, cet inversement de tendances est infirmé par une autre enquête d'opinion - également réalisée après Villepinte. Selon TNS-Sofres pour I-télé, non seulement Sarkozy est devancé au premier tour par le socialiste, à 26 contre 30%. Surtout, il perd deux points depuis le 27 février, alors que Hollande reste stable. De quoi embarasser certains sondeurs: «On est sur une science sociale, pas sur une vérité absolue, mais avoir deux orientations si différentes est embêtant», admet l'un d'eux, qui n'a travaillé sur aucune des enquêtes qui se télescopent aujourd'hui.Except that 18 hours later, this reversal of trend is dismissed by another opinion poll - also performed after the Villepinte meeting. According to TNS-Sofres for I-télé [TV channel], Sarkozy is not only behind the socialist in the first round, 26% vs. 30% [to Hollande]. On top of that, he loses two points since Feb. 27, while Holland is stable. Enough to embarrass some pollsters: "It is a social science, not an absolute truth, even though having two different orientations is rather annoying," admits one of them, who has not worked on any of the two polls that collided today.

Rather "embêtant" indeed for the polling outfits...

by Bernard on Tue Mar 13th, 2012 at 03:26:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]
IFOP has been polling the two much closer than the other polls for some time. It's all in the "cooking recipes" the pollsters use on the raw data.
by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Tue Mar 13th, 2012 at 03:48:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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