The European Tribune is a forum for thoughtful dialogue of European and international issues. You are invited to post comments and your own articles.
Please REGISTER to post.
The short-lived red-green coalition in the German state of North Rhine-Westphalia has been forced to call snap elections after failing to get the backing for its new budget. The red-green minority government in the German state of North Rhine-Westphalia (NRW) has collapsed after just over 18 months under Premier Hannelore Kraft. It's been forced to call a snap election after all three opposition parties rejected the 2012 budget proposal.
The short-lived red-green coalition in the German state of North Rhine-Westphalia has been forced to call snap elections after failing to get the backing for its new budget.
The red-green minority government in the German state of North Rhine-Westphalia (NRW) has collapsed after just over 18 months under Premier Hannelore Kraft. It's been forced to call a snap election after all three opposition parties rejected the 2012 budget proposal.
Two instant polls:
SPD 37%, CDU 34%, greens 13%, pirates 6%, left 4%, FDP 2%.
http://politbarometer.zdf.de/ZDFde/inhalt/5/0,1872,8492389,00.html?dr=1
and:
SPD 38%, CDU 34%, greens 14%, pirates 5%, left 4%, FDP 2%
http://www.tagesschau.de/multimedia/bilder/nrwtrend112_mtb-1_pos-2.html#colsStructure
Looks pretty obvious so far.
Party List vote Change Seats Change Turnout/total 59.32% -3.66 181 -6 CDU (Christian Democrat) 34.56% -10.28 67 -22 SPD (Social Democrats) 34.48% -2.62 67 -7 Greens 12.12% +5.95 23 +11 FDP ([neo]liberals) 6.73% +0.57 13 +1 Left Party (Socialist)† 5.60% +2.51 11 +11
Allocating 181 seats to 37-38% SPD, 34% CDU, 13-14% Green and 5-6% Pirates one gets
75( +8) SPD 68( +1) CDU 27( +4) Green 11(+11) Pirates 0(-11) Left 0(-13) FDP There are three stories about the euro crisis: the Republican story, the German story, and the truth. -- Paul Krugman
Neither party, nor even the greens can hope to gain a constituency seat. 2010 only SPD and CDU gained constituency seats. Perhaps this time the greens succeed in one of the four cologne constituencies. But surely not pirates or left or FDP.
So a four party parliament: SPD - CDU - greens - pirates seems most plausible right now.
With significant pressure from part of the base, NRW SPD leader Hannelore Kraft first tried talks towards the left-of-centre version, "red-red-green" (SPD+Left Party+Greens). But that seems to have been an alibi operation, because the end with a declaration that the NRW Left Party is unfit for government came after just a few hours of talks. ... This, however, would not have changed majorities in the federal upper house, and that ahead of crucial votes on energy and the austerity package. For this reason, the federal SPD leaders were angered -- and the Greens even moreso. The Greens felt taken for granted, and their leaders launched unprecedented open attacks in the media. With effect: days later, SPD leader Kraft announced the minority government option: a government that seeks allies of occasion for each law it presents. The excuse was a similar scuffle that emerged between the NRW FDP and CDU: the NRW FDP was miffed by the CDU's continuing courting of the SPD in the hopes of a Grand Coalition, and declared that they don't feel bound to them -- which Kraft interpreted as the end of the CDU-FDP coalition and thus a change of the situation. After four weeks of coalition talks, the two parties approved the coalition agreement, the Left Party approved an abstaining in the vote on the wannabe minority government, while the CDU declared fundamental opposition. The vote was held yesterday (Wednesday). The rules are that simple majority is enough in the second round. In both rounds, there was full party discipline, that is: 90 votes for the minority government, 80 against, 11 abstaining.
...
This, however, would not have changed majorities in the federal upper house, and that ahead of crucial votes on energy and the austerity package. For this reason, the federal SPD leaders were angered -- and the Greens even moreso. The Greens felt taken for granted, and their leaders launched unprecedented open attacks in the media. With effect: days later, SPD leader Kraft announced the minority government option: a government that seeks allies of occasion for each law it presents. The excuse was a similar scuffle that emerged between the NRW FDP and CDU: the NRW FDP was miffed by the CDU's continuing courting of the SPD in the hopes of a Grand Coalition, and declared that they don't feel bound to them -- which Kraft interpreted as the end of the CDU-FDP coalition and thus a change of the situation.
After four weeks of coalition talks, the two parties approved the coalition agreement, the Left Party approved an abstaining in the vote on the wannabe minority government, while the CDU declared fundamental opposition. The vote was held yesterday (Wednesday). The rules are that simple majority is enough in the second round. In both rounds, there was full party discipline, that is: 90 votes for the minority government, 80 against, 11 abstaining.
And since the polls always said that new elections would result in a clear red-green majority, the outcome now was more or less predetermined.
by Oui - Feb 4 9 comments
by Frank Schnittger - Feb 2 8 comments
by Frank Schnittger - Jan 26 3 comments
by Frank Schnittger - Jan 31 3 comments
by Frank Schnittger - Jan 22 3 comments
by Cat - Jan 25 61 comments
by Oui - Jan 9 21 comments
by gmoke - Jan 20
by Oui - Feb 49 comments
by Oui - Feb 311 comments
by Frank Schnittger - Feb 28 comments
by Oui - Feb 269 comments
by Oui - Feb 16 comments
by Frank Schnittger - Jan 313 comments
by gmoke - Jan 29
by Oui - Jan 2732 comments
by Frank Schnittger - Jan 263 comments
by Cat - Jan 2561 comments
by Frank Schnittger - Jan 223 comments
by Oui - Jan 2110 comments
by Oui - Jan 21
by Oui - Jan 20
by Oui - Jan 1841 comments
by Oui - Jan 1591 comments
by Oui - Jan 145 comments
by Frank Schnittger - Jan 1328 comments
by Oui - Jan 1221 comments