European Salon de News, Discussion et Klatsch - 16 March | 84 comments (84 topical, editorial, 0 hidden)

Re: Europe (none / 1)

Yes, red-green. Now with majority!

Two instant polls:

SPD 37%, CDU 34%, greens 13%, pirates 6%, left 4%, FDP 2%.

http://politbarometer.zdf.de/ZDFde/inhalt/5/0,1872,8492389,00.html?dr=1

and:

SPD 38%, CDU 34%, greens 14%, pirates 5%, left 4%, FDP 2%

http://www.tagesschau.de/multimedia/bilder/nrwtrend112_mtb-1_pos-2.html#colsStructure

Looks pretty obvious so far.

by IM on Fri Mar 16th, 2012 at 06:33:17 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Europe (none / 0)

For comparison: the May 2010 election results from dvx's NRW Elections Diary

Party List		  vote	  Change  Seats  Change
Turnout/total		  59.32%   -3.66    181      -6
CDU (Christian Democrat)  34.56%  -10.28     67     -22
SPD (Social Democrats)	  34.48%   -2.62     67      -7
Greens			  12.12%   +5.95     23     +11
FDP ([neo]liberals)	   6.73%   +0.57     13      +1
Left Party (Socialist)†    5.60%   +2.51     11     +11

How does seat allocation work? Is it purely proportional?

There are three stories about the euro crisis: the Republican story, the German story, and the truth. -- Paul Krugman

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Mar 16th, 2012 at 06:39:06 AM EST
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Re: Europe (none / 0)

Fairly proportional If a party gets more direct seats than their proportional result is, the other parties get extra seats to restore proportionality.

by Katrin on Fri Mar 16th, 2012 at 06:50:31 AM EST
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Re: Europe (none / 0)

What are the prospects for Linke or FDP direct seats?

There are three stories about the euro crisis: the Republican story, the German story, and the truth. -- Paul Krugman

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Mar 16th, 2012 at 07:15:39 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Europe (none / 0)

Is there a 5% minimum to get seats? Could the Left and FDP both fail to get in, to the benefit of the Pirates?

Allocating 181 seats to 37-38% SPD, 34% CDU, 13-14% Green and 5-6% Pirates one gets

75( +8) SPD
68( +1) CDU
27( +4) Green
11(+11) Pirates
0(-11) Left
0(-13) FDP

There are three stories about the euro crisis: the Republican story, the German story, and the truth. -- Paul Krugman

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Mar 16th, 2012 at 07:08:41 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Europe (none / 0)

Yes. But the Pirates may still be within the margin of error of failing to get in as well.

by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Fri Mar 16th, 2012 at 07:19:24 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Europe (4.00 / 3)

If we trust the polls, pirates are in ~6%, the left is out with ~4% and the FDP is out with ~2%. (threshold 5%).
But of course pirates and left are still within the margin of error. And the left can hope that these results can change during the campaign.

Neither party, nor even the greens can hope to gain a constituency seat. 2010 only SPD and CDU gained constituency seats. Perhaps this time the greens succeed in one of the four cologne constituencies. But surely not pirates or left or FDP.

So a four party parliament: SPD - CDU - greens - pirates seems most plausible right now.

by IM on Fri Mar 16th, 2012 at 07:29:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Europe (4.00 / 4)

Zambia coalition?