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French Parliamentary Elections: a look under the hood | 59 comments (59 topical, editorial, 0 hidden)
Re: Second-preference voting (none / 1)
That is debatable. You seem to be assuming that people do vote for their main choice in the first round.

In 2007, with second preference, Bayrou would have won in a landslide.

Of course, proportional representation would be the right thing to do for parliementary elections.

Earth provides enough to satisfy every man's need, but not every man's greed. Gandhi

by Cyrille (cyrillev domain yahoo.fr) on Tue May 8th, 2012 at 08:57:54 AM EST
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Re: Second-preference voting (none / 0)
"In 2007, with second preference, Bayrou would have won in a landslide."

Actually, not necessarily. It depends on how it would be organised. So I should take that back.

Earth provides enough to satisfy every man's need, but not every man's greed. Gandhi

by Cyrille (cyrillev domain yahoo.fr) on Tue May 8th, 2012 at 09:01:17 AM EST
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Re: Second-preference voting (none / 0)
Would Bayrou had been the Condorcet winner?

Condorcet method - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

A Condorcet method is any election method that elects the candidate that would win by majority rule in all pairings against the other candidates, whenever one of the candidates has that property

While not the strict definition an approxiamtion is that the least disliked candidate wins. Wheter this is good depends (imho) on what you are electing.

Sweden's finest (and perhaps only) collaborative, leftist e-newspaper Synapze.se

by A swedish kind of death on Tue May 8th, 2012 at 02:10:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Second-preference voting (none / 0)
Second preference would affect the final pair of Presidential candidates if second preferences flipped the 3rd / 2nd order before the 3rd place candidate was relegated. You'd have to have the margin in 2007 and guess how the preferences of the voters for the lower placed candidates would distribute.

The two round general election system is oriented to accomplishing a similar end as the second preference system, but generating more work for journalists. But given the 12.5% of registered voters ~ 15.6% of the electorate with 80% turnout, 19.2% of the electorate with 65% turnout ~ a second preference makes it easier for minor parties to get over the line for the second round.

I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.

by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Tue May 8th, 2012 at 12:49:06 PM EST
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Re: Second-preference voting (none / 0)
Indeed -- in a certain number of cases, it might, for example, enable a FDG or EELV candidate to qualify for the second round, and/or finish ahead of the PS candidate, if electors exchanged second preferences. In practice, I suspect, there would be too much dispersal of preferences. Unless Australian-style how-to-vote instructions were issued by parties. But that's anti-democratic.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II
by eurogreen on Tue May 8th, 2012 at 01:32:56 PM EST
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Re: Second-preference voting (none / 1)
Beating the threshold and hitting either first or second among the left would seem to be the key. With second preference voting, the "left solidarity" action would be for everyone but the first two left party candidates to stand aside.

I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.
by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Tue May 8th, 2012 at 03:02:18 PM EST
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Re: Second-preference voting (4.00 / 2)
The main effect that I can see is to counteract the PS's "vote utile" propaganda; so, in 2007, the Green and Communist candidates would have done a lot better, and Royal correspondingly worse; but Royal would have gone through to the second round, because I can't see many electors from eliminated candidates going to Bayrou.

Likewise, the system would probably encourage the natural tendency of the mainstream right to run two candidates, since they wouldn't have to worry so much about being eliminated by the FN.

So it's all positive for the presidentials.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Tue May 8th, 2012 at 01:42:57 PM EST
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Re: Second-preference voting (none / 1)
But then it would have to be put in place despite Socialist Party reluctance.

It doesn't seem that the Green Party or the Radicals are in a position to make many demands of the PS, if they are dependent upon an electoral coalition with the PS for their representation in parliament.

So it would come down to whether the FDG is required to form a majority, and what price in electoral reform the FDG could extract.

MMP on whatever numbers on offer would seem to be the first best outcome for the FDG ~ any other electoral reform would be a consolation prize if MMP is out of reach.

Of all the electoral reforms ~ preferential voting, multi-member STV, MMP ~ while second preference wouldn't have as dramatic an impact, it also comes with the least likelihood of increasing FN representation, so long as the FN remains relatively second preference toxic. However, that likelihood would have been even lower before Sarkozy's efforts to woo the FN electorate.

I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.

by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Tue May 8th, 2012 at 04:15:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]

French Parliamentary Elections: a look under the hood | 59 comments (59 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)
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