Well, should the UMP win the elections and gets an absolute majority of seats, Hollande won't have much choice other than appointing a UMP Prime Minister who'd run right wing policies (and fat lot of good electing Hollande would have done). OK, that's unlikely, especially with the FN absolutely bent on inflicting maximum damages to the UMP by maintaining their candidates in the second round whenever possible.

The most likely alternative are:

• The PS gets an absolute majority all by itself
  
• The PS plus the Greens at EELV (60 districts where the PS supports them) get an absolute majority.
  
• The PS plus the Greens get a relative majority and need to coalesce with the Front de Gauche to reach an absolute majority.