A useful map, showing the legislative districts which voted Hollande or Sarkozy in the second round of the presidential election. This is as good a proxy as any for the likely results of the legislative elections.

So, for a total of 577, we are looking at :

• 253 "safe" left seats where Hollande got over 52.5%
  
• 80 winnable where he got between 50 and 52.5
  
• 75 vulnerable for the right, where Sarko is between 50 and 52.5
  
• 169 "safe" for the right, with over 52.5%

Given that the right will be demotivated, and a slice of electors may switch sides to give Hollande his chance, the starting point for expectations has to be the 333 seats where Hollande is ahead, plus a certain proportion of the 75 right-wing marginals.

Factor in the FN, which will be maintaining candidates wherever it can (or blackmailing UMP candidates into selling their soul). If the UMP maintains its cohesion, it will probably lose a couple of dozen seats to the left over and above the general left/right swing, out of both the "vulnerable" and "safe" categories. If the local UMP candidates cut deals with the FN, it's even better : the right gets a few more MPs, but becomes a battlefield for the next five years.

_{It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II}