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This is a largely mechanical result of the proposed electoral system : proportional by region, as for the European parliamentary elections. We can extrapolate the last result, that of 2009, to get an idea. There are 5 parties representing the UK in the EU: by size of group, Conservative, Labour, Ukip, Libdem, Green. There might be one or two more parties represented because of the smaller quota required (120 "lords" per election, compared to 72 EMPs), but you get the idea.
This is sufficiently different from the FPP Commons method to be a pretty good way to elect an upper house. But cut the "life senztors" crap please.
It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue
- Queen Elizabeth II
It is likely that the non-partisan "cross-benchers" (who function as a technical group in the House of Lords) will be the third largest group in the reformed House. The Liberal Democrats will probably be the next largest. There will then be smaller numbers of members from various other parties.
Under the new order no one will serve for more than fifteen years, so the old idea of membership for life will disappear.
No. What you would get is an assembly without a partisan majority, in which the libdems imagine being the perpetual swing group.
A multi-seat constituency system is going to tilt over time more toward the Greens being the balance of power, as in the Ozzie Senate ~ indeed, the Ozzie Dems were the balance of power for a while, but in making a deal with the Conservative Coalition (Libs and Nats) on a VAT, they relegated themselves to irrelevancy.
It would be a small bit poignant if the Lib Dems got the House of Lords reform through as their last gasp before their already existing coalition with the Tories knocked them down in a similar way. The poignancy would be substantially tempered by the fact that the idiotic gits had it coming for being foolish enough to strike the deal.
I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.
I suspect that the cross-benchers would be the third largest group.
The Liberal Democrats have been weakened by participation in the coalition, but they remain the third largest party and I see no likelihood that they will lose that position or not be the 4th largest group in the House of Lords.
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