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Insuring against default does not automatically increase the probability of default, and even where it does, the increase is usually small. And this is especially true in the case of derivatives where the counter-parties are often between investors in the loan and not related to the borrower at all.

While adverse selection is indeed a non-trivial problem in credit risk and actuarial models of default, the statistical evidence is quite strong that the correlation between insurance and defaults is sufficiently weak to allow for gains by insuring against default.  

Note that it is the lender, and the lender's investors, who are insuring against default, not the borrower.  This is even the case where a lender requires the borrower to effectively insure oneself against one's own default because a borrower bears no risk of loss in case of default: The borrower already received the benefits when the loan was disbursed, so only the lender bears the risk of loss from the point the loan was made until it is repaid.

by santiago on Mon Jul 30th, 2012 at 03:43:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]


Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.
by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Mon Jul 30th, 2012 at 06:36:53 PM EST
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AIG made the same mistake that lots of insurance companies have made throughout history have made -- they overextended the protection they could provide customers because of inadequate appreciation of the risks involved. The problem was not that they were insuring against defaults, but that they did too much of it relative to their capacity to pay out on their commitments in the event of loss. They wrote too many derivatives, but the problem was 'too many' not 'derivatives.'
by santiago on Tue Jul 31st, 2012 at 02:37:23 AM EST
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The problem was derivatives, because the derivatives in question had been specifically designed and marketed as ways to break the law.

There hasn't been a "financial innovation" since the ATM which hasn't been about finding technically legal ways to skirt prudential regulation. The technicalities really don't matter - being engaged in "financial innovation" is prima facie evidence of conspiracy to defraud the public.

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Tue Jul 31st, 2012 at 05:15:50 AM EST
[ Parent ]
No. The problem is trying to break the spirit of laws and the misuse of financial derivatives, a form of insurance contract, is the mere manifestation of the problem at the present time. Tomorrow it will be something else.
by santiago on Fri Aug 3rd, 2012 at 11:56:05 PM EST
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Doesn't change the fact that there hasn't been a useful financial innovation since the ATM.

Which means that simply making a - very short - whitelist of stuff banks are allowed to do would make it vastly more difficult to scam people, at no loss of anything important. Drowning the mark in impenetrable bafflegab that make the salesman look smart is a staple of confidence scams, and there is no good reason to give conmen in business suits that option.

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Sun Aug 5th, 2012 at 07:55:04 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I'm not disputing that point.

I just don't think derivatives really fall into the category of financial innovation.  Derivatives are merely particular specifications of insurance, which has been around a lot longer than ATMs, and there is nothing fundamentally wrong, or right, about derivatives that warrant them being treated any differently than the way insurance is already treated.  Insurance fraud should be prohibited and policed, and the same standards for determining fraudulent practices versus legitimate practice should be applied to derivatives as well.  

by santiago on Sun Aug 5th, 2012 at 10:16:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Derivatives are not insurance, because no insurable interest is required to enter into a derivatives transaction.

Derivatives are gambling.

For evidence that derivatives are gambling and not insurance, consider the fact that insurance is priced on actuarial principles on the basis of physical probabilities, whereas derivatives are priced on bookmaking principles on the basis of market probabilities. As discussed in the diary, incidentally. Maybe the diary is not too clear on this point, which would be a Fail™.

If a risk is not actuarial it's not insurable.

If you are not convinced, try it on someone who has not been entirely debauched by economics. — Piero Sraffa

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Aug 6th, 2012 at 03:59:32 AM EST
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For the insurer, no insurable interest is required either.  For the insuring party, insurance is gambling.  That's what actuarial tables are -- odds-making, based on physical as well as other probabilities.  

What you are arguing is that some things are legitimately insurable -- such as life expectancy -- and some things aren't, such as market price outcomes, which is an interesting argument, but not a convincing one.  Probabilities are probabilities, so why shouldn't people who face costly market volatility risks be able to transfer, for a price, those risks on to gamblers who are willing to accept it?    

by santiago on Mon Aug 6th, 2012 at 10:55:56 AM EST
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Normally the insurer is the wealthier party to the transaction (there's even a calculation dating back to Daniel Bernoulli in the early 1700's showing that under logarithmic utility there's a wealth level below which it makes sense to buy insurance and a wealth level above which it makes sense to sell insurance). Or, in any case, at least one of the two parties to an insurance transaction (the buyer of insurance) has an insurable interest. In the case of derivatives, there are various problems: first, often none of the two parties has an insurable interest; second, in some cases (the ones under discussion in this thread) the market-maker does not provide insurance but buys insurance from a less wealthy counterparty which is not in the business of selling insurance on a wide array of financial events so as to diversify away the downside risk; it is a common practice to offer improved borrowing terms in exchange for a sold option and the downside risk is not understood by the counterparty.

As to:

Probabilities are probabilities
You either have not read the diary, have not understood it, or completely disagree with the meat of it.

If you are not convinced, try it on someone who has not been entirely debauched by economics. — Piero Sraffa
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Aug 6th, 2012 at 11:11:55 AM EST
[ Parent ]
On the last point, no, I do not agree with point the diary is making, to the extent I understand it correctly.

Regardless of whether risk can be reduced for all parties or even estimated correctly, it can still be reduced for one party by being transferred to another who is willing to accept the much higher chance of loss, even a loss that effectively means accepting a negative expected return -- gambling.  If this wasn't the case, it would be mathematically impossible for casinos to remain profitable, would it not?

In such cases, yes, the wealth of the gambler must be high enough to be able to cover the event of loss without being catastrophic to the system, and that was not the case at the beginning of the credit crisis. In other words, the CDO market in 2007 didn't have an enforcer capable of kneecapping AIG and its investors to cover the losses, due to poor oversight by financial authorities.  But that doesn't mean it can't work if such oversight and enforcement exists.

by santiago on Mon Aug 6th, 2012 at 12:33:04 PM EST
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I recently read a quip that there's no gambling analogue of futures and options, because casinos would consider them too reckless as bets.

In addition, casino bets have limited downside and are skewed to the upside (for the players). In other words, you bet a given amount in hopes of a larger payoff. Or, in a more precise gambling analogy, you're required to post 100% margin (you have to put down your maximum loss for the current round of betting). Unregulated casinos where people can bet their house or can even make bets without having the money at the table are the stuff of mafia stories.

If you are not convinced, try it on someone who has not been entirely debauched by economics. — Piero Sraffa

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Aug 6th, 2012 at 12:41:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]
And where derivatives markets are regulated, as in the US now with the recent legislation that banks opposed so much, the same conditions now exist as in the casinos as you describe -- you have to be able to cover your bets with 100% of the margin, just like futures and options in regulated commodities markets. If you're arguing that Europe should adopt similar regulations, I agree.
by santiago on Mon Aug 6th, 2012 at 12:52:03 PM EST
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you have to be able to cover your bets with 100% of the margin, just like futures and options in regulated commodities markets

Put that way, it should kill the retail derivatives market stone dead.

If you are not convinced, try it on someone who has not been entirely debauched by economics. — Piero Sraffa

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Aug 6th, 2012 at 01:00:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]
What you are arguing is that some things are legitimately insurable -- such as life expectancy -- and some things aren't, such as market price outcomes, which is an interesting argument, but not a convincing one.

I'm not saying that market price outcomes are not legitimately insurable. I'm saying that when neither party to a derivative contract has an exposure to the relevant market price outcome (that is, when both parties increase their exposure by entering the transaction) then it is not insurance. A case in point is the proposal to allow cashing of CDS payouts only on delivery of a defaulted bond. That allows people to gamble on CDS prices, but it only allows one to call it insurance if the CDS is actually buying protection against default.

If you are not convinced, try it on someone who has not been entirely debauched by economics. — Piero Sraffa

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Aug 6th, 2012 at 11:17:57 AM EST
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Agreed.
by santiago on Mon Aug 6th, 2012 at 12:04:25 PM EST
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why shouldn't people who face costly market volatility risks be able to transfer, for a price, those risks on to gamblers who are willing to accept it?

That's not what I'm talking about. I'm talking about lenders buying exotic derivatives from nonfinancial counterparties, which increases the exposure of the borrower to financial price risk.

If you are not convinced, try it on someone who has not been entirely debauched by economics. — Piero Sraffa

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Aug 6th, 2012 at 11:21:03 AM EST
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If limited to those cases, I agree.
by santiago on Mon Aug 6th, 2012 at 12:18:38 PM EST
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Derivatives makes it very easy to separate fools from their money.

If you are not convinced, try it on someone who has not been entirely debauched by economics. — Piero Sraffa
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Aug 6th, 2012 at 12:27:12 PM EST
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The problem with derivatives is that they made it easy for really smart people to be separated from their money too.
by santiago on Mon Aug 6th, 2012 at 05:21:01 PM EST
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People who think they're smarter than they are count as fools in this game.

If you are not convinced, try it on someone who has not been entirely debauched by economics. — Piero Sraffa
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Aug 6th, 2012 at 06:49:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Probabilities are probabilities, so why shouldn't people who face costly market volatility risks be able to transfer, for a price, those risks on to gamblers who are willing to accept it?

Because that's not how people actually use those types of contract.

You don't need exotic derivatives to do that - you can do it with plain old forward contracts. What you need exotic derivatives for is turning credit risk into market risk, so you can hedge it. Which you should not do, because,

  • Credit risks are correlated and pro-cyclical, which creates a structural bias for undercapitalized insurance salesmen.

  • Insuring credit risk lets lenders outsource due diligence to insurance companies, which is never a good idea.

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Mon Aug 6th, 2012 at 11:46:15 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Don't disagree in general with either point.  

However, keep in mind that "exotic" just means customized, over the counter contract specific to a particular case. You often need them for the same reason that many other kinds of insurance contracts are specific to individual cases.  

Credit risks are really only weakly correlated.  Even in the worst of the current credit crisis, most loans are not being defaulted. Therefore they are easily insurable.

Last point I agree completely. This is the principal-agent problem, and it is aggravated by the fact, alluded to by Migeru, above, that lenders usually have better information than insurers and borrowers in these cases.

However, default derivatives, CDOs, are really only a very small part of the derivatives being done by financial organizations, and even less so today. Most of them are interest-rate derivatives unrelated to default, where risk is traded for interest payments and these have none of the problems you associate with default speculation.  

by santiago on Mon Aug 6th, 2012 at 12:17:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]
However, keep in mind that "exotic" just means customized, over the counter contract specific to a particular case. You often need them for the same reason that many other kinds of insurance contracts are specific to individual cases.  
Um, in real life "exotic" means it has a high "WTF!?" factor, it is highly nonlinear or is outright explosive when certain market events happen, it is highly leveraged, and/or has no obvious economic purpose.

I admit many "exotic" deals are simply bespoke non-toxic derivatives, but there are enough painted hand grenades out there masquerading as swaps. Sometimes an overexcited young heir fresh out of business school asks for a painted hand grenade suppository, too.

If you are not convinced, try it on someone who has not been entirely debauched by economics. — Piero Sraffa

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Aug 6th, 2012 at 12:26:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Credit risks are really only weakly correlated.  Even in the worst of the current credit crisis, most loans are not being defaulted.

OK, time to break out the Statistics 201 book here. 100 % correlation does not require that all loans default, only that all those loans which do default do so at the same time. If all loans go from having 1 % default risk to having 5 % default risk at precisely the same time, then the correlation is one, and the insurer who is capitalized on the basis of a 1 % default risk goes bust.

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Mon Aug 6th, 2012 at 01:15:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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