The European Tribune is a forum for thoughtful dialogue of European and international issues. You are invited to post comments and your own articles.
Please REGISTER to post.
While adverse selection is indeed a non-trivial problem in credit risk and actuarial models of default, the statistical evidence is quite strong that the correlation between insurance and defaults is sufficiently weak to allow for gains by insuring against default.
Note that it is the lender, and the lender's investors, who are insuring against default, not the borrower. This is even the case where a lender requires the borrower to effectively insure oneself against one's own default because a borrower bears no risk of loss in case of default: The borrower already received the benefits when the loan was disbursed, so only the lender bears the risk of loss from the point the loan was made until it is repaid.
There hasn't been a "financial innovation" since the ATM which hasn't been about finding technically legal ways to skirt prudential regulation. The technicalities really don't matter - being engaged in "financial innovation" is prima facie evidence of conspiracy to defraud the public.
- Jake Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.
Which means that simply making a - very short - whitelist of stuff banks are allowed to do would make it vastly more difficult to scam people, at no loss of anything important. Drowning the mark in impenetrable bafflegab that make the salesman look smart is a staple of confidence scams, and there is no good reason to give conmen in business suits that option.
I just don't think derivatives really fall into the category of financial innovation. Derivatives are merely particular specifications of insurance, which has been around a lot longer than ATMs, and there is nothing fundamentally wrong, or right, about derivatives that warrant them being treated any differently than the way insurance is already treated. Insurance fraud should be prohibited and policed, and the same standards for determining fraudulent practices versus legitimate practice should be applied to derivatives as well.
Derivatives are gambling.
For evidence that derivatives are gambling and not insurance, consider the fact that insurance is priced on actuarial principles on the basis of physical probabilities, whereas derivatives are priced on bookmaking principles on the basis of market probabilities. As discussed in the diary, incidentally. Maybe the diary is not too clear on this point, which would be a Fail™.
If a risk is not actuarial it's not insurable. If you are not convinced, try it on someone who has not been entirely debauched by economics. — Piero Sraffa
What you are arguing is that some things are legitimately insurable -- such as life expectancy -- and some things aren't, such as market price outcomes, which is an interesting argument, but not a convincing one. Probabilities are probabilities, so why shouldn't people who face costly market volatility risks be able to transfer, for a price, those risks on to gamblers who are willing to accept it?
As to:
Probabilities are probabilities
Regardless of whether risk can be reduced for all parties or even estimated correctly, it can still be reduced for one party by being transferred to another who is willing to accept the much higher chance of loss, even a loss that effectively means accepting a negative expected return -- gambling. If this wasn't the case, it would be mathematically impossible for casinos to remain profitable, would it not?
In such cases, yes, the wealth of the gambler must be high enough to be able to cover the event of loss without being catastrophic to the system, and that was not the case at the beginning of the credit crisis. In other words, the CDO market in 2007 didn't have an enforcer capable of kneecapping AIG and its investors to cover the losses, due to poor oversight by financial authorities. But that doesn't mean it can't work if such oversight and enforcement exists.
In addition, casino bets have limited downside and are skewed to the upside (for the players). In other words, you bet a given amount in hopes of a larger payoff. Or, in a more precise gambling analogy, you're required to post 100% margin (you have to put down your maximum loss for the current round of betting). Unregulated casinos where people can bet their house or can even make bets without having the money at the table are the stuff of mafia stories. If you are not convinced, try it on someone who has not been entirely debauched by economics. — Piero Sraffa
Put that way, it should kill the retail derivatives market stone dead. If you are not convinced, try it on someone who has not been entirely debauched by economics. — Piero Sraffa
I'm not saying that market price outcomes are not legitimately insurable. I'm saying that when neither party to a derivative contract has an exposure to the relevant market price outcome (that is, when both parties increase their exposure by entering the transaction) then it is not insurance. A case in point is the proposal to allow cashing of CDS payouts only on delivery of a defaulted bond. That allows people to gamble on CDS prices, but it only allows one to call it insurance if the CDS is actually buying protection against default. If you are not convinced, try it on someone who has not been entirely debauched by economics. — Piero Sraffa
That's not what I'm talking about. I'm talking about lenders buying exotic derivatives from nonfinancial counterparties, which increases the exposure of the borrower to financial price risk. If you are not convinced, try it on someone who has not been entirely debauched by economics. — Piero Sraffa
Probabilities are probabilities, so why shouldn't people who face costly market volatility risks be able to transfer, for a price, those risks on to gamblers who are willing to accept it?
You don't need exotic derivatives to do that - you can do it with plain old forward contracts. What you need exotic derivatives for is turning credit risk into market risk, so you can hedge it. Which you should not do, because,
However, keep in mind that "exotic" just means customized, over the counter contract specific to a particular case. You often need them for the same reason that many other kinds of insurance contracts are specific to individual cases.
Credit risks are really only weakly correlated. Even in the worst of the current credit crisis, most loans are not being defaulted. Therefore they are easily insurable.
Last point I agree completely. This is the principal-agent problem, and it is aggravated by the fact, alluded to by Migeru, above, that lenders usually have better information than insurers and borrowers in these cases.
However, default derivatives, CDOs, are really only a very small part of the derivatives being done by financial organizations, and even less so today. Most of them are interest-rate derivatives unrelated to default, where risk is traded for interest payments and these have none of the problems you associate with default speculation.
I admit many "exotic" deals are simply bespoke non-toxic derivatives, but there are enough painted hand grenades out there masquerading as swaps. Sometimes an overexcited young heir fresh out of business school asks for a painted hand grenade suppository, too. If you are not convinced, try it on someone who has not been entirely debauched by economics. — Piero Sraffa
Credit risks are really only weakly correlated. Even in the worst of the current credit crisis, most loans are not being defaulted.
by gmoke - May 6
by rifek - May 4 3 comments
by gmoke - Apr 26 1 comment
by gmoke - Apr 20 1 comment
by rifek - Apr 18
by rifek - Apr 17 2 comments
by Oui - May 14
by Oui - May 13
by Oui - May 82 comments
by rifek - May 43 comments
by Oui - May 42 comments
by Oui - May 4
by Oui - May 1
by Oui - Apr 27
by gmoke - Apr 261 comment
by Oui - Apr 25
by Oui - Apr 23
by Oui - Apr 22
by gmoke - Apr 201 comment
by Oui - Apr 204 comments
by gmoke - Apr 18
by Oui - Apr 181 comment
by rifek - Apr 172 comments