InnoTrans 2012 | 41 comments (41 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)

Re: InnoTrans 2012 (none / 0)

Newag already survived hard times, between 2007 and 2009 there were basically no orders

Was investment into development prior to that as significant as it is now? What were the profit margins on the initial orders in the post-regionalisation order wave? Would a PESA or NEWAG getting in financial difficulties in the medium-term not be a much more attractive target for a takeover by a rival (be it friendly or hostile) than they were a few years ago? I was also thinking of risks like this; and these adding up with unpredictable but not unlikely risks like losing big on an order with unexpected complications (like the Combino trams with cracks for Siemens or the brake commissioning problems for the Budapest metros for Alstom).

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Mon Oct 1st, 2012 at 10:11:41 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: InnoTrans 2012 (4.00 / 2)

The investment into development was smaller because of lack of money. But they haven't stopped and they showed a new high floor EMU.

I think financial difficulties won't change much because now they're much bigger than just a few years ago. Only this year Newag expects to triple its total revenue (from 300 million zl in 2011 to ~800m zl in 2012). Pesa and Newag are pretty difficult to take over because they are private copmpanies owned by just a few guys with big ambitions. Newag is owned by one multimillionaire - Zbigniew Jakubas and they've already struggled from financial difficulties once and Jakubas said that selling Newag was never an option.

About complications. First - they haven't got so seriuous complications like Siemens with Combino. Newag had some with their first DMUs, it took them about 2 months to fix. To avoid such problems they produce prototypes to test them and results are pretty good - Newag 19WE (which has a prototype) is the most reliable Polish EMU, it's really close to Stadler Flirt. Now Newag is testing the prototype of their first tram.

PS. Two things about Pesa:

They have one more order abroad for 30 Links for Czech Railways (CD).
Link from Innotrans was produced for Zachodniopomorskie voivodship in Poland, they just painted it in Oberpfalzbahn livery.

by ko on Mon Oct 1st, 2012 at 07:52:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: InnoTrans 2012 (none / 0)

Incidentally, I saw two of the LINKs for CD (who named them RegioShark) on my travel to and from the InnoTrans. (The photo, being made hastily against the Sun in hazy weather through the train window, is not the best quality though.)

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Tue Oct 2nd, 2012 at 05:19:43 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: InnoTrans 2012 (none / 0)

By the way, perhaps you can answer these two questions of mine?

Does ZNLE plan a Griffin version with last-mile diesel?
What is the power rating of the last-mile diesel engine on the PESA Gama? (I didn't have the chance to ask at the InnoTrans; on the web, all I could find was a forum discussion in Polish where both a 403 kW and a 430 kW figure turn up.)

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Tue Oct 2nd, 2012 at 09:37:15 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: InnoTrans 2012 (none / 1)

I've never heard anything about it. I think they don't but since both Dragon and Griffin are modular platforms, high demand may convince them. But I think there's no actual demand for Last Mile locomotives, they're good for showing off but actual operators are not willing to buy them. For the last two years Bombardier sold just 5 Last Mile Traxxes to Railpool. Thing is, Railpool is not exactly independent from Bombardier. Maybe they are too expensive or too complicated?
Gama Marathon has CAT C15 engine with 570HP (420kW). That's much more than Traxx Last Mile (240kW) so it can be pretty useable while shunting. It has two tanks with fuel (500l each) wchich gives the range of about 40 kilometers (that's why it's called Marathon).

by ko on Tue Oct 2nd, 2012 at 09:24:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: InnoTrans 2012 (none / 0)

Ad 1: I think the problem is rather that all the locos with last-mile diesels don't yet have a certification (Bombardier's being part of the new TRAXX 3 product platform). Siemens' last-mile-equipped Vectron will probably be the first one to get certification. Certification matters: from what I can find, the entire Vectron product platform didn't get more than two orders for altogether eight units so far.

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Wed Oct 3rd, 2012 at 04:07:59 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: InnoTrans 2012 (none / 0)

I should add I have a bit more info on this: on one of the Bombardier locos, I overheard a discussion in which they told the TRAXX 3 certification is on hold until they are done with the four-engine diesel TRAXX (they really don't want to get delayed with this big order for DB). Vectron certification trials are on-going full-throttle, however (though they modified some parts during the process), that's why I say they should be the first to be able to offer a service-ready last-mile version to customers.

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Wed Oct 3rd, 2012 at 02:32:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: InnoTrans 2012 (none / 0)

I don't think certification is a problem. Both multi-engine and Last Mile Traxxes were sold before they've got any certificates. About Vectron - I think private operators suffer from the crisis, in last year (or two) there were not many orders for brand new locomotives at all.

I just think last mile locos won't be as popular as producers would like them to be. They're not strong enough to operate on non electrified lines, moderately useful for shunting (I think Traxx Last Mile's 240kW isn't much, plus most stations have proper shunting locos), more expensive to buy and operate (inspections/repairs).

by ko on Fri Oct 5th, 2012 at 10:36:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: InnoTrans 2012 (none / 0)

IMHO the orders for the multi-engine and last-mile diesel TRAXXes were quite different. The first was a classic major order from a former state railway after a procurement competition, in which Bombardier took up the financial risks of any delays and product problems. The launch customer for the last-mile diesel TRAXX 3 is a leasing company, which doesn't have any fixed plans to operate the locos (which would be delayed by certification problems and connected delivery problems) and whose risk in using a new development is reduced by the possibility to lease to different customers (if the first or second customer doesn't find it practical).

I agree that the power of the first last-mile diesels is low, certainly not enough for line operation, thus a true success of the idea won't be possible before 500 kW units can be installed. However, using shunters at stations is not for free, it costs time and money, money which includes the maintenance of those shunters. With the last-mile diesel, you spare the investment and maintenance cost of a second set of transmission/converter, running gear and vehicle body.

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Sat Oct 6th, 2012 at 02:46:35 AM EST
[ Parent ]

InnoTrans 2012 | 41 comments (41 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)

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