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There are many stories of intuition being right. It would be interesting to do a controlled study to find out how often intuition is right, and whether or not there's any way of predicting that it's right.

E.g. my outsider take on recent physics is that it's basically a process of throwing random stuff at the wall. The set of mathematically plausible ideas is much bigger than the set of testable ideas, which is much bigger than the set of ideas that actually survive empirical testing.

So every so often someone gets lucky and their idea gets through the testing process. Then they get a Nobel.

But it might not be intuition that got them there, so much as winning the idea lottery by randomly picking the right possibility out of many.

Creative scientists, who get to the same place by reliable original insights, seem exceptionally rare.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Wed Oct 30th, 2013 at 07:37:41 AM EST
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