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Droughts:


SREX (Seneviratne et al., 2012) assessed that there was medium confidence that anthropogenic influence has contributed to some changes in the drought patterns observed in the second half of the 20th century based on attributed impact of anthropogenic forcing on precipitation and temperature changes, and that there was low confidence in the assessment of changes in drought at the level of single regions.

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There is not enough evidence to support medium or high confidence of attribution of increasing trends to anthropogenic forcings as a result of observational uncertainties and variable results from region to region (Section 2.6.2.2). Combined with difficulties described above in distinguishing decadal scale variability in drought from long-term climate change we conclude consistent with SREX that there is low confidence in detection and attribution of changes in drought over global land areas since the mid-20th century.

Tropical cyclones:


There is low confidence in basin-scale projections of changes in intensity and frequency of tropical cyclones in all basins to the mid-21st century

On floods, the AR5 confirms the conclusions of the SREX report, which concluded:

there is limited to medium evidence available to assess climate-driven observed changes in the magnitude and frequency of floods at a regional scale because the available instrumental records of floods at gauge stations are limited in space and time, and because of confounding effects of changes in land use and engineering. Furthermore, there is low agreement in this evidence, and thus overall low confidence at the global scale regarding even the sign of these changes.
by Bjinse on Fri Oct 4th, 2013 at 12:09:24 PM EST
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