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The above quote on tropical cyclones taken from AR5 was on projections. However, there is no divergence on regional or global analysis on tropical cyclones:


There is low confidence in long-term (centennial) changes in tropical cyclone activity, after accounting for past changes in observing capabilities.


Current datasets indicate no significant
observed trends in global tropical cyclone frequency over the past century and it remains uncertain whether any reported long-term increases in tropical cyclone frequency are robust, after accounting for past changes in observing capabilities (Knutson et al., 2010).
by Bjinse on Fri Oct 4th, 2013 at 01:56:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]
You underline, for cyclones, the question of frequency, while sidestepping the stated clear evidence on intensity :
However over the satellite era, increases in the intensity of the strongest storms in the Atlantic appear robust (Kossin et al., 2007; Elsner et al., 2008) but there is limited evidence for other regions and the globe.

 (Obviously, there is a time lag: AR5 cannot take into account the devastating cyclones hitting Asia in the last couple of years. It would be surprising if a trend were not noted in the next round.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II
by eurogreen on Sun Oct 6th, 2013 at 07:16:33 AM EST
[ Parent ]
My diary noted the observed intensity in hurricanes for the Atlantic basin since 1970s, so I fail to see where I would 'sidestep'.

Considering the subject of hurricane intensity, the following remark from the AR5 should suffice:

Time series of cyclone indices such as power dissipation, an aggregate compound of tropical cyclone frequency, duration, and intensity that measures total wind energy by tropical cyclones, show upward trends in the North Atlantic and weaker upward trends in the western North Pacific since the late 1970s (Emanuel, 2007), but interpretation of longer-term trends is again constrained by data quality
concerns (Landsea et al., 2011).

...

In summary, this assessment does not revise the SREX conclusion of low confidence that any reported longterm (centennial) increases in tropical cyclone activity are robust, after accounting for past changes in observing capabilities.

SREX's conclusion :


Based on research subsequent to the AR4 and Kunkel et al. (2008), which further elucidated the scope of uncertainties in the historical tropical cyclone data, the most recent assessment by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Expert Team on Climate Change Impacts on Tropical Cyclones (Knutson et al., 2010) concluded that it remains uncertain whether past changes in any tropical cyclone activity (frequency, intensity, rainfall) exceed the variability expected through natural causes, after accounting for changes over time in observing capabilities. The present assessment regarding observed trends in tropical cyclone activity is essentially identical to the WMO assessment (Knutson et al., 2010): there is low confidence that any observed long-term (i.e., 40 years or more) increases in tropical cyclone activity are robust, after accounting for past changes in observing capabilities.

I'm well aware that projections possibly suggest an increase of the number of the strongest hurricanes for some basins - but there is no strong consensus on this either (see chapter 14 of the AR5 or SREX).

by Bjinse on Sun Oct 6th, 2013 at 09:10:58 AM EST
[ Parent ]

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