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European periphery countries can export to the rest of the unknown multiverse.

I distribute. You re-distribute. He gives your hard-earned money to lazy scroungers. -- JakeS
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Feb 11th, 2013 at 12:34:25 PM EST
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Only fair; the unknown is much larger, after all.
by IM on Mon Feb 11th, 2013 at 12:52:59 PM EST
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Exactly. But a shooting war? Get real.
by Katrin on Mon Feb 11th, 2013 at 12:53:43 PM EST
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Want to bet on having real shooting in Greece and Spain within five years?

I distribute. You re-distribute. He gives your hard-earned money to lazy scroungers. -- JakeS
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Feb 11th, 2013 at 03:10:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]
No. But real shooting, coups, riots, are not the same as war, even if they are just as frightening.
by Katrin on Mon Feb 11th, 2013 at 03:54:37 PM EST
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We're talking about two countries that are still scarred from civil wars 70-80 years ago... But okay, "not the same as war"...

I distribute. You re-distribute. He gives your hard-earned money to lazy scroungers. -- JakeS
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Feb 11th, 2013 at 04:59:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Well, scenario A may be as bad as scenario B, but they are not the same.

When it comes to demanding repayment of a loan from a debtor, there is an ultimate point when the debtor can say "come and get it if you dare". If the creditor is Germany, that's that. Have you ever thought of it?

by Katrin on Mon Feb 11th, 2013 at 05:10:52 PM EST
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Well, the idea was only floated in the event of underperforming failing to wake up (ie still pushing the same doctrines) after Spain, Portugal, Italy and Greece had disintegrated into civil wars.

So if you were to do worse than that, well, then France would probably be next. And if France disintegrates, it's at least plausible that at some point some people will want to do more than merely stop paying, and demand some back (something that Germany did once, didn't it?).

Not saying it's the most likely. Just that if you accept the premise that elites do even worse than failing to change course after countries break into civil wars, well, it will have to be bad. And indeed the 30s is the nearest experience. I'm pretty sure that lots of people explained that full outbreak was impossible back then too. In fact, I know that it was stated in the early 1910s.

Earth provides enough to satisfy every man's need, but not every man's greed. Gandhi

by Cyrille (cyrillev domain yahoo.fr) on Tue Feb 12th, 2013 at 03:35:57 AM EST
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Yes, that's what JakeS is talking about when he talks about hard default leding to lack of access to international credit markets which, for a net importer of food and fuel with a current account deficit is tantamount to a wartime blockade.

I distribute. You re-distribute. He gives your hard-earned money to lazy scroungers. -- JakeS
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Feb 12th, 2013 at 03:45:49 AM EST
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There is such a thing as a "low intensity civil war" and the current Greek government seems to me to want to keep this option on the table.

The road of excess leads to the palace of wisdom - William Blake
by talos (mihalis at gmail dot com) on Mon Feb 11th, 2013 at 05:27:27 PM EST
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I'll start worrying about Spain when I see the levels of political violence of the 1970s. If it gets to early 1930s levels, then I will really worry.

Currently there is no political violence to speak of.

I distribute. You re-distribute. He gives your hard-earned money to lazy scroungers. -- JakeS

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Feb 12th, 2013 at 03:52:12 AM EST
[ Parent ]
considering gladio, no-one would believe it in italy anyway. in fact if they were to try another piazza fontana it might just spur further investigation into what really happened then.

too recent to 'insabbiare' (let get buried under the sand).

likewise falcone and borsellino's murders.


'The history of public debt is full of irony. It rarely follows our ideas of order and justice.' Thomas Piketty

by melo (melometa4(at)gmail.com) on Thu Feb 14th, 2013 at 09:13:44 PM EST
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