Welcome to European Tribune. It's gone a bit quiet around here these days, but it's still going.
Display:
Well, scenario A may be as bad as scenario B, but they are not the same.

When it comes to demanding repayment of a loan from a debtor, there is an ultimate point when the debtor can say "come and get it if you dare". If the creditor is Germany, that's that. Have you ever thought of it?

by Katrin on Mon Feb 11th, 2013 at 05:10:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Well, the idea was only floated in the event of underperforming failing to wake up (ie still pushing the same doctrines) after Spain, Portugal, Italy and Greece had disintegrated into civil wars.

So if you were to do worse than that, well, then France would probably be next. And if France disintegrates, it's at least plausible that at some point some people will want to do more than merely stop paying, and demand some back (something that Germany did once, didn't it?).

Not saying it's the most likely. Just that if you accept the premise that elites do even worse than failing to change course after countries break into civil wars, well, it will have to be bad. And indeed the 30s is the nearest experience. I'm pretty sure that lots of people explained that full outbreak was impossible back then too. In fact, I know that it was stated in the early 1910s.

Earth provides enough to satisfy every man's need, but not every man's greed. Gandhi

by Cyrille (cyrillev domain yahoo.fr) on Tue Feb 12th, 2013 at 03:35:57 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Yes, that's what JakeS is talking about when he talks about hard default leding to lack of access to international credit markets which, for a net importer of food and fuel with a current account deficit is tantamount to a wartime blockade.

I distribute. You re-distribute. He gives your hard-earned money to lazy scroungers. -- JakeS
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Feb 12th, 2013 at 03:45:49 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Display:

Occasional Series