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The countries will be violently liquidated, but the creditor countries will not wake up, preferring to fall back on the comfortable "those lazy southerners really don't know how to govern themselves".

That's the low end of my prediction range.

I really hope they don't manage to underperform that, because I don't see a lot of room to underperform that and still avoid a fourth Franco-German war...

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Sat Feb 9th, 2013 at 07:56:23 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I'm not sure if a fourth Franco-German war is coming, but I do feel a bit like what I imagine the IPCC feels like when they continuously issue reports in which the worst-case scenario winds up looking optimistic to the point of delusion.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Sat Feb 9th, 2013 at 08:04:29 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The whole crisis has felt like a predictable horror movie where, as characters die off one at a time, the audience knows that they shouldn't open that door, they shouldn't go scouting, they shouldn't eat that, they shouldn't push that button...

I distribute. You re-distribute. He gives your hard-earned money to lazy scroungers. -- JakeS
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sat Feb 9th, 2013 at 08:47:25 AM EST
[ Parent ]
"I really hope they don't manage to underperform that, because I don't see a lot of room to underperform that and still avoid a fourth Franco-German war..."

Just what could a new war possibly accomplish?
Isn't it more reasonable to junk the whole European concept and restart from scratch as painful as that may be?

Hey, Grandma Moses started late!

by LEP on Sun Feb 10th, 2013 at 10:18:59 AM EST
[ Parent ]
LEP:
Just what could a new war possibly accomplish?
Isn't it more reasonable to junk the whole European concept and restart from scratch as painful as that may be?

the very idea of modern french and germans becoming nationalistic enough to go to war... it's too surreal and improbable to even seriously consider.

as for canning the project and starting again, it would be a good idea, though the breakup would be messy, it's by no means certain it would be worse than what's happening now, and no policy turnarounds in sight.

creating a new european union that would please everyone is obviously utopian, but at least one thing is clear... creating a common currency without an euro-equivalent of the U.S. Federal Reserve and a union-wide fiscal policy.

the probability of a second attempt being a quantum leap forward is high- the mistakes are so fresh in our minds, and the results of doing it wrong so flamingly evident.

besides, there already is a war, between the 1% and their henchmen and the rest of us.

maybe they will have to win that one to realise how stupidly suicidal a victory it was first. some juggernauts are unstoppable- seems like that's what we have to endure seeing how successfully the propaganda  of neolib brain rot has taken root.

it will crash and burn, the present setup, but without european countries taking up arms against each other, that seems utterly insane, hopefully europeans have created enough cross-border cultural awareness and appreciation for each other that we will be immune to the kind of parochial patriotism that was relatively easily whipped up in WWs 1 and 2.

wars these days are exercises in democracy building in geographical backwaters where resources are plentiful, with few divisions to protect them.

/snark

'The history of public debt is full of irony. It rarely follows our ideas of order and justice.' Thomas Piketty

by melo (melometa4(at)gmail.com) on Sun Feb 10th, 2013 at 01:30:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]
besides, there already is a war, between the 1% and their henchmen and the rest of us.

Earlier an army was needed to grab lands, goods, extract tithes. Now that is all much easier. Especially when the other side is clueless what and how they are loosing.

I will start a job at Athens University next month, by the way. Will it get interesting in one year?

by das monde on Tue Feb 12th, 2013 at 11:35:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]
You mean Athens Greece?
If so
a. Welcome! Mail me if you need any advice or help!
b. In much less than a year, depending on your definition of "interesting"

The road of excess leads to the palace of wisdom - William Blake
by talos (mihalis at gmail dot com) on Wed Feb 13th, 2013 at 07:47:29 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Thanks, I will.
by das monde on Wed Feb 13th, 2013 at 11:57:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]
You got your Kevlar?

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Fri Feb 15th, 2013 at 12:49:34 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Just what could a new war possibly accomplish?

It would create quite a bit of radioactive glass where a couple of German cities used to be. Nothing much else.

Which is why it isn't in my prediction range.

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Mon Feb 11th, 2013 at 03:36:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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