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Yes, but yellow and red in Thailand has shown us that two can play at that game and there can be an endless see-saw.
See also the ultimate result in Ukraine.
by IM on Wed Mar 6th, 2013 at 11:33:36 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I would propose that Ukraine is a special case, due to the inability of any of the great powers to intervene directly in favor of their favored color revolution.

Georgia might be a more apropos example.

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Wed Mar 6th, 2013 at 11:42:56 AM EST
[ Parent ]
So wearing my macho-liberal-interventionist hat, I assert the EU's right to pick the winner when it happens on our patch.

If only because if we make it clear we won't, some other power will be delighted to do it for us.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Wed Mar 6th, 2013 at 11:46:36 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The EU does not get to pick the winner, because the EU cannot place boots on the ground.

France gets to pick the winner. Germany and the UK get veto rights over who France picks.

"France, subject to German and British veto" is not the same as "EU."

Given how obviously dysfunctional the German-led EU has become, France acting unilaterally or with tacit support from Britain and Germany may well make better decisions than the EU. But don't kid yourself that unilateral French decisions will be made to cater to the European interest.

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Wed Mar 6th, 2013 at 11:52:39 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I don't really understand this discussion. Why is everybody assuming a civil war (semi civil war etc.) on ideological lines?

Isn't a armed conflict about separatism much more probable?

Even the conflict in Ukraine has a considerable regional slant.

by IM on Wed Mar 6th, 2013 at 12:09:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Depends on which country you're looking at.

In Spain, probably. But there is likely to be an ideological difference between the separatists and the central government as well, which is what will likely decide which side the great powers support.

In Greece, I don't see the separatist fault line. But I very much do see the Pro-Nazi/Austerity vs. Anti-Nazi/Austerity fault line.

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Wed Mar 6th, 2013 at 12:13:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Nationalism is ideological lines.

Other than that, I at least am not assuming a conflict "along ideological lines" (except possibly in Greece with Golden Dawn vs. Syriza).

Though if Spain gets violent over nationalism, it will quickly devolve into an "ideological" war too, what with all those Franco fans and anarchists.

I distribute. You re-distribute. He gives your hard-earned money to lazy scroungers. -- JakeS

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Mar 6th, 2013 at 12:25:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]
"Nationalism is ideological lines."

Ok, other ideological lines not related with competing nationalisms.

by IM on Wed Mar 6th, 2013 at 12:33:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I think one of the ideological lines will be a continuation of pro/anti-austerity even in other conflicts, perhaps in the shape of paying or not the foreign debt. I have two reasons for this, the first is that governments in the case of a conflict that could end with shot cabinet members has an increased need of shoring up support at home. Rejecting austerity seems like the easiest way. So declearing independence, rejecting any part of the foreign debt and start an expansive program for lifting the general standard of living could easily be parts of the same program.

Absent great power interest, both sides could reject austerity, but with present great power line-up embracing austerity could grant foreign support. So defeating the secessionists, paying our debts and getting help from our friends could also be part of the same program.

In general I think smaller conflicts adopt to what greater powers will support. Absent the cold war a lot of conflicts would have been fought between similar groups but with different flags. Some time ago I read an article by a pakistani communist that travelled to North Korea during the heydays of international communism and left with the question of why the North Korean government was considered communist in the first place. My answer would be because they had been accepted in the communist group and therefore were communist by definition.

Sweden's finest (and perhaps only) collaborative, leftist e-newspaper Synapze.se

by A swedish kind of death on Wed Mar 6th, 2013 at 02:28:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]
[eurogreen's Macho Moment of the Day™ Technology]

Do we need a separate macro for liberal interventionist?

I distribute. You re-distribute. He gives your hard-earned money to lazy scroungers. -- JakeS

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Mar 6th, 2013 at 12:20:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Has the idea for this macro been my main contribution to ET? Could be. Certainly the longest-lasting.

Earth provides enough to satisfy every man's need, but not every man's greed. Gandhi
by Cyrille (cyrillev domain yahoo.fr) on Wed Mar 6th, 2013 at 04:45:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]
But even there is now a somewhat pro russian billionaire in power.
by IM on Wed Mar 6th, 2013 at 12:05:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]
That's sort of my point: Russia took the opportunity Georgia gave them (or, depending on how you view the Russian peacekeeping troops in Ossetia, Russia generated) to toss out the Americans' gangster and install their own. Not to further the interests of the Georgian people.

The pro-Russian gangster happened to probably be better for Georgia than the pro-US gangster. But what's good for Georgia was likely to have been some way down the list of criteria for picking him.

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Wed Mar 6th, 2013 at 12:10:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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