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I don't really understand this discussion. Why is everybody assuming a civil war (semi civil war etc.) on ideological lines?

Isn't a armed conflict about separatism much more probable?

Even the conflict in Ukraine has a considerable regional slant.

by IM on Wed Mar 6th, 2013 at 12:09:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Depends on which country you're looking at.

In Spain, probably. But there is likely to be an ideological difference between the separatists and the central government as well, which is what will likely decide which side the great powers support.

In Greece, I don't see the separatist fault line. But I very much do see the Pro-Nazi/Austerity vs. Anti-Nazi/Austerity fault line.

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Wed Mar 6th, 2013 at 12:13:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Nationalism is ideological lines.

Other than that, I at least am not assuming a conflict "along ideological lines" (except possibly in Greece with Golden Dawn vs. Syriza).

Though if Spain gets violent over nationalism, it will quickly devolve into an "ideological" war too, what with all those Franco fans and anarchists.

I distribute. You re-distribute. He gives your hard-earned money to lazy scroungers. -- JakeS

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Mar 6th, 2013 at 12:25:55 PM EST
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"Nationalism is ideological lines."

Ok, other ideological lines not related with competing nationalisms.

by IM on Wed Mar 6th, 2013 at 12:33:52 PM EST
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I think one of the ideological lines will be a continuation of pro/anti-austerity even in other conflicts, perhaps in the shape of paying or not the foreign debt. I have two reasons for this, the first is that governments in the case of a conflict that could end with shot cabinet members has an increased need of shoring up support at home. Rejecting austerity seems like the easiest way. So declearing independence, rejecting any part of the foreign debt and start an expansive program for lifting the general standard of living could easily be parts of the same program.

Absent great power interest, both sides could reject austerity, but with present great power line-up embracing austerity could grant foreign support. So defeating the secessionists, paying our debts and getting help from our friends could also be part of the same program.

In general I think smaller conflicts adopt to what greater powers will support. Absent the cold war a lot of conflicts would have been fought between similar groups but with different flags. Some time ago I read an article by a pakistani communist that travelled to North Korea during the heydays of international communism and left with the question of why the North Korean government was considered communist in the first place. My answer would be because they had been accepted in the communist group and therefore were communist by definition.

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by A swedish kind of death on Wed Mar 6th, 2013 at 02:28:31 PM EST
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