Roads to war in Europe | 272 comments (272 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)

Re: Roads to war in Europe (none / 0)

QUESTION : Do you see secessions in Eu countries as a bad thing and why?
Your governments (practically all of them , at least western governments for sure) supported secession in ex YU and later in Serbia "in the name of peace"... and I suppose they saw that it will be easier to integrate those small republics in to the EU gradually (?).And satisfy those small elites (puppet governments) in the process...
So how would secessions elsewhere in EU be so bad thing? You may argue that those governments supported secessions in ex YU only after the war started but it wouldn't be serious argument.
Processes of secessions in EU countries started to take place in a more serious manner some time ago (Spain, UK, Belgium) ...When it starts and if it shows successful it will spread like epidemic (especially having in mind Europe's very questionable ethnic borders ).
Nationalism as a pretext to these secessions are used and will going to be used because it's easier to mobiles people but we all know that it is about economics , about money. Everyone wants to be a boss of his own wallet ( especially in crises).During good times of progress everyone wanted to take benefit of free market but it all turned bad when our own 1% of the greedy left us without jobs and are now cutting us of all the benefits and rights we managed to achieve in last 100 years...
What puzzles me is the question: if for example Catalonia succeed to get independence declaring that it is not going to pay debts and will not go austerity way, where and how for the sake of me are they going to borrow money again ( and a lot of money will be needed). They are going to need to have some very powerful "friends" and with a lot of money...who the heck they can be?
So many questions in my mind...

Science without religion is lame, religion without science is blind...Albert Einstein

by vbo on Wed Mar 6th, 2013 at 08:53:41 PM EST

Re: Roads to war in Europe (none / 1)

I don't see Catalan secession form Spain as a bad thing, but I see a war being fought over it. And I see an opportunistic Catalan party which has never been explicitly for independence until their own regional government became bankrupt due to the crisis, and which attempts to shift the blame to Spanish government austerity when they were in power a year earlier in the region and introduced the same austerity by themselves.

I distribute. You re-distribute. He gives your hard-earned money to lazy scroungers. -- JakeS

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Mar 7th, 2013 at 02:00:06 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Roads to war in Europe (none / 0)

This means that, as vbo points out, any serious push for Catalonian independence will be based on a false premise : the idea that they would be able to repudiate their debts (or their share of Spanish debts). That is clearly impossible within the Euro with the current rules; so that means exiting the euro, and good luck with the economy.

So economically, independence could only lead to things getting much worse, no?

_{It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue
- Queen Elizabeth II}

by eurogreen on Thu Mar 7th, 2013 at 03:54:57 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Roads to war in Europe (none / 0)

But Scotland is being told that they will have to reapply for admission to the EU. Won't that apply to Catalonia as well? Can you remain in the Euro while not being in the EU?

by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Thu Mar 7th, 2013 at 04:04:33 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Roads to war in Europe (4.00 / 4)

About a year ago, the European Commission appeared ready to accommodate Scottish independence within the EU. However, mostly they were ambiguous about this. Then Catalan independence came up and, after a month or so of contradictory statements, the official line became that secession implies EU exit. I suspect Spain pressured to harden the official line.

Then again, if the UK breaks up, couldn't Scotland be the successor state to EU membership and the rest of the UK exit? After all, on paper the Act of Union between Scotland and England was between equals...

I distribute. You re-distribute. He gives your hard-earned money to lazy scroungers. -- JakeS

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Mar 7th, 2013 at 04:15:53 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Roads to war in Europe (none / 0)

England has the City, and some very useful off-shore tax havens.

If the Scots suddenly started running the tax haven scam for themselves, they could make London very nervous.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Thu Mar 7th, 2013 at 04:28:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Roads to war in Europe (none / 0)

Exiting the Euro would be a good thing... if the debt were under local law. But Catalan debt to Spain is in large part under Spanish law, so it would remain denominated in Euros if Spain remained in the Euro. Similarly, all the EU bailouts and ECB liquidity are under EU law, not Spanish law, so Spanish Euro exit might help devalue the debt, but ever less with each passing month.

The Catalan government would probably argue that it has been a net fiscal contributor to Spain and so is owed. However, the Catalan government borrowed €10bn from the Spanish government last year to avoid insolvency, and it will borrow as much this year. In addition, Catalunya Caixa has received €10bn of Spanish government aid (some of it from the EU bailout last year) and now cannot be auctioned because nobody wants to buy it. I joke that the Spanish government should sell Catalunya Caixa to the Catalan government for €1.

So Catalan independence looks to me to set up something not unlike the Ljubljanska Banka controversy: when Yugoslavia fell apart many banks failed, including Ljubljanska Banka. The newly independent slovenia argued that onle Slevenes were eligible for protection from the Slovenian state, and that others had recourse to the Yugoslav deposit guarantee. 20 years later, Slovenia is delaying retification of Croatia's EU accession because there are still lawsuits by private Croatian citizens on their lost savings in Ljubljanska Banka, and Slovenia and Croatia are negotiating some sort of settlement. 20 years later.

I distribute. You re-distribute. He gives your hard-earned money to lazy scroungers. -- JakeS

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Mar 7th, 2013 at 04:13:28 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Roads to war in Europe (none / 0)

Exiting the Euro would be a good thing... if the debt were under local law.

The debt is under whatever law the debtor is under. What it says on the lien doesn't really matter to that.

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Thu Mar 7th, 2013 at 04:22:36 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Roads to war in Europe (4.00 / 2)

Assuming the debtor doesn't need to travel or trade internationally.

I distribute. You re-distribute. He gives your hard-earned money to lazy scroungers. -- JakeS

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Mar 7th, 2013 at 04:25:49 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Roads to war in Europe (none / 0)

No, that just means he's under a wider set of laws than if he doesn't.

Some of which may be incompatible.

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Thu Mar 7th, 2013 at 04:35:01 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Roads to war in Europe (none / 1)

I understand catalan separatism very much like northern italian separatism: We are rich, we are competent we are different and only incompetent Rome/Madrid and all these moochers in the rest of Spain/Italy are holding us back.

I wouldn't that rich region separatism as some sort of rebellion against austerity or whatever.

by IM on Thu Mar 7th, 2013 at 03:47:32 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Roads to war in Europe (none / 0)

If so it looks like Slovenia at the time , to me. They were rich ( and few) and they always complained that they have to contribute that much to Kosovo for example or to YU Army etc. They said they want to be in charge of their money...now they got it...sort of ;)
Similar now with Vojvodina ( in Serbia). They are arguing for ages how their money goes to Belgrade and they do not like it...but honestly if it goes this path we'll see Europe going back in time when every village was a state...it's not serious...

Science without religion is lame, religion without science is blind...Albert Einstein

by vbo on Thu Mar 7th, 2013 at 05:03:22 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Rich-region anti-austerian separatism (4.00 / 3)

I wouldn't that rich region separatism as some sort of rebellion against austerity or whatever.

It's worse than that. The right-wing Catalan nationalists won the regional elections at the end of 2010 and they embarked on austerity with gusto, with parliamentary support from the Catalan PP. When the indignados movement started in May 2011, the strongest police brutality took place in Barcelona. Already in June 2011 Catalan anti-austerity protesters were picketing the regional parliament. That's 15 months before the Spanish surround the Congress protest in Madrid. At the end of 2011, the Spanish nationalists of the PP win the national elections.

Then in 2012 the Catalan government finds itself bankrupt and impopular due to austerity, and what do they do? Blame the bankruptcy on Rajoy's austerity, call early elections, lose a bunch of seats in the regional parliament to the Republican Left of Catalonia.

And then what does the Republican Left do? They agree to support the reappointment of the incumbent government on condition that they lay down a calendar for independence. And they are willing to support an austerity budget, on condition that the austerity budget is publicly, officially blamed on Rajoy.

Meanwhile, the Spanish nationalist crazies are making noises about military intervention in Catalonia.

I distribute. You re-distribute. He gives your hard-earned money to lazy scroungers. -- JakeS

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Mar 7th, 2013 at 05:23:48 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Roads to war in Europe | 272 comments (272 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)

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