Welcome to European Tribune. It's gone a bit quiet around here these days, but it's still going.
To me, the most likely scenario is as follows:
  1. Popular revolt against austerity and reform measures topple a number of governments.
  2. Demands for public spending programs and debt cancellation result in a collapse of the EZone.
  3. World economy plunges into deep recession.
  4. Each of the former EZone countries tries to offload debts and losses resulting from the EZone collapse onto other countries.
  5. The resulting quarreling leads to a breakup of the EU.
  6. Without the regulatory framework of the EU, we'll enter a trade-war within months.
  7. Tensions about trade issues and border issues that have been muted since the war due to European integration degrade bilateral relations.
  8. There will be a period of hectic alliances building.
  9. Italy and France will split; one part joining a North European alliance, the other part joining a Southern alliance.
  10. Military is deployed to safeguard national unity.
  11. Joint US/Chinese forces intervene to stop an all-out war ;-)
by The European on Sat Mar 9th, 2013 at 03:05:50 PM EST

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