Welcome to European Tribune. It's gone a bit quiet around here these days, but it's still going.
3 does not follow from 2. Indeed failure to break the €Z is much more likely to cause step 3.

But you can put a deeper recession as a result of EU break-up and trade-war. So add the er and move it down.


4 has been going on since 2009, and has so far failed to break the EU.

But so far it has been one-sided. If you include step 2 you could get a two-sided conflict. Say that Italy and Greece gets governments that fire CB bosses and investigates them and by extension ECB for subverting treaties and conspiring to cause economic harm to the nation (which is high treason in Sweden at least). They also default on debt and blame Germany. Pressure mounts on all countries except Germany to leave the euro and they promptly do.

On the other side you have a German government trying to bloc the effect of the investigations by having the original sinners thrown out of the EU for breaking the EMU treaties. Plus a number of anti-austerity governments that support Italy and Greece while at least Netherlands and Finland backs Germany. The Council grinds to a halt and with it the EU. Member states start withholding their fees and eventually the cities reposses the EU buildings for not paying the water bill.

Sweden's finest (and perhaps only) collaborative, leftist e-newspaper Synapze.se

by A swedish kind of death on Sat Mar 9th, 2013 at 04:10:43 PM EST
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If you include step 2 you could get a two-sided conflict.

It's a bit like a staring match: the one to blink first looses.
In this case, the party perceived to have caused EZone collapse will get the blame and will be shouldered with the lion share of the damages.
That is the motive behind the blaming game we have witnessed for the last couple of years.
by The European on Sat Mar 9th, 2013 at 05:34:14 PM EST
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When the Eurozone comes undone, it won't matter who the talking heads blame.

Possession is 9/10ths of the law.

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Sat Mar 9th, 2013 at 06:04:15 PM EST
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