3 does not follow from 2. Indeed failure to break the €Z is much more likely to cause step 3.

But you can put a deeper recession as a result of EU break-up and trade-war. So add the er and move it down.

JakeS:

4 has been going on since 2009, and has so far failed to break the EU.

But so far it has been one-sided. If you include step 2 you could get a two-sided conflict. Say that Italy and Greece gets governments that fire CB bosses and investigates them and by extension ECB for subverting treaties and conspiring to cause economic harm to the nation (which is high treason in Sweden at least). They also default on debt and blame Germany. Pressure mounts on all countries except Germany to leave the euro and they promptly do.

On the other side you have a German government trying to bloc the effect of the investigations by having the original sinners thrown out of the EU for breaking the EMU treaties. Plus a number of anti-austerity governments that support Italy and Greece while at least Netherlands and Finland backs Germany. The Council grinds to a halt and with it the EU. Member states start withholding their fees and eventually the cities reposses the EU buildings for not paying the water bill.

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