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Now on to substance. You are a bit more optimistic then I am, essentialy following the break-up of the Eastern bloc (at least until 8). My mental model is more of 1848 mixed with 1930ies.

If we see alliances, I don't think they will be north-south as then you largely ally with your neighbours, and it is with the neighbours the old border issues exist. Sweden could (extremely unlikely though) conjure up border issues with Finland (Åland islands) but not with Greece. A rise of Greater Hungary could quickly trigger a search for anti-Hungary alliances around Hungary, but Portugal would be uninterested. So if there is alliance building I rather think it will be a complex weave of enemy-of-my-enemy alliances.

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by A swedish kind of death on Sat Mar 9th, 2013 at 04:21:28 PM EST
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