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If it is about staying in a rump-EU, Sweden would stay. If it is a new alliance that comes close to EU in importance, I doubt Sweden would join. Both the nationalist right and anti-EU left is much stronger now then when Sweden joined the EU, and that was a close call. For Finland it depends on how much they got burnt when the EU collapsed vs how scared they are about Russia. Both Sweden and Finland could end up going back to EFTA.

The Baltic countries will probably cling to Germany for safety whatever austerity may come.

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by A swedish kind of death on Sun Mar 10th, 2013 at 04:34:27 PM EST
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If it is about staying in a rump-EU, Sweden would stay. If it is a new alliance that comes close to EU in importance,

The difference is in name only. Any new alliance would invariably integrate most of the things we have already in the EU. As to its potential importance, only time can tell.
by The European on Mon Mar 11th, 2013 at 07:38:55 AM EST
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I find it difficult to believe anything like the euro or the EU-as-political-project would emerge if the EU collapses.  Those, in my mind, are based on a Top/Down Model of organization of human interaction during a time of increasing Bottom/Up P2P links.  

I'm no Techno-Utopian but it seems clear, to me, the global linkages allowed by the Internet will have profound consequences, some of which we can't even begin to imagine.  As an example, what happens to Big-Box Brick-and-Mortar Stores when customers routinely purchase commodity consumer consumables over the internet?  What happens to continual consumption (purchase) of consumer durables after somebody figures out they can make a bloody fortune by junking planned obsolesce and receive long-term income from parts and service?  

A major change in Communications must lead to other major changes, across the board.  See what happened after the invention of the moveable type, as an obvious 'bit of proof.'  

Granted TPTB, who became TPTB under the previous circumstances, are going to do everything they can to prevent a phase transition.  However under foreseeable meta-changes, e.g., Global Warming, I think, in the end, there is bugger-all they can do about it.  

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Tue Mar 12th, 2013 at 02:14:23 PM EST
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I think anything like EU-as-political-project is unlikely if the EU collapse, but for another reason. The EU is as a project to build a federal European state a project that tries to create and depends upon a European identity. And when those fail competing identities are strenghtened, which would be the member states as Neuro/Seuro identities are not developed. If the project returns in force it takes a generation or so.

So if EU fails I predict member states going their own ways with overlapping, weaker intergovernmental collaborations.

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by A swedish kind of death on Tue Mar 12th, 2013 at 04:21:30 PM EST
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