Welcome to European Tribune. It's gone a bit quiet around here these days, but it's still going.
And of course the largest trade partner of Germany is still France.

German exports in 2012:


That is a fantastic reason for France not to share a currency with Germany.

Imagine a core Eurozone with Germany and France alone, and Germany retaining its 6% current account surplus. If their common currency continued to float freely and the core Eurozone had a neutral current account balance, France would have an 8% current account deficit.

So either Germany gives up its current account surplus or the rest of the world allows the core Eurozone to devalue its currency so that it can run a 3% current account surplus. Or Germany accepts fiscal transfers to France comparable to the size of the current account balances.

As none of the three possibilities are politically plausible, there cannot be a core Eurozone consisting of Germany and France. In fact, there cannot be a Eurozone consisting of Germany and anyone else (as the successive failures of Europe's attempts to fix exchange rates without fiscal transfers over 40 years demonstrate).

I distribute. You re-distribute. He gives your hard-earned money to lazy scroungers. -- JakeS

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Mar 11th, 2013 at 06:17:42 AM EST
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