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German exports in 2012:

That is history. What is important for future policies will be future trade flows. The top ten destinations for German exports in 2020 are estimated to be as follows:

  1. China (15.6%)
  2. France (8.8%)
  3. Russia (7.0%)
  4. Netherlands (6.5%)
  5. US (6.4%)
  6. UK (5.6%)
  7. Poland (5.2%)
  8. Austria (5.2%)
  9. Switzerland (4.6%)
  10. Italy (4.3%)

China will become the most important trade partner. Russia will overtake the US. France will loose it's top position and the South will be insignificant.

But the determining factor for the formation of a German-centered trade block following an EZone/EU collapse would be the question where Northern and Eastern countries export to. I'm pretty sure that to most Germany will be the most important export market.

by The European on Mon Mar 11th, 2013 at 06:50:51 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I admit I didn't link either because I did find only german language sources. My source was the german statistical office, though. That said, I would like a source for that claim.

And 2012 is of course the present, not the past, except in a hyper literal sense.

Even so, this guess includes six members of the EU and Switzerland.

by IM on Mon Mar 11th, 2013 at 07:00:15 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I would like a source for that claim

It's a GS projection:

http://www.goldmansachs.com/s/GMeT_othermailings_attachments/63488662514238375059101.pdf

And no, trade figures for 2012 do represent the past of business that has been completed and payed for. File closed. Current order books and business plans have to take into consideration a horizon of 2020 at the very least.

by The European on Mon Mar 11th, 2013 at 07:14:38 AM EST
[ Parent ]
That is nonsense. We know about the recent past, in this case 2012. We only guess about the future. So if we want to know, the recent past is closest to the present we can get.

And Goldman Sachs - in 2007 they probably made projections how Ireland would grow into the largest european economy or something.

by IM on Mon Mar 11th, 2013 at 07:51:14 AM EST
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You can wipe your arse with Goldman projections. If you have a particular hatred for your gastrointestinal flora.

Come back with a halfway credible source and then we can talk.

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Mon Mar 11th, 2013 at 04:13:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]
What would a credible source look like? Anyone making projections for 2020 is pulling numbers out of orifices usually reserved for excreting more solid waste.
by generic on Mon Mar 11th, 2013 at 04:42:10 PM EST
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Well. I cannot categorically refuse to consider the possibility that there might, in fact, be a useful projection around somewhere that reaches all the way to 2020.

Proving a negative is hard, after all.

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Mon Mar 11th, 2013 at 04:44:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]
China will become the most important trade partner. Russia will overtake the US. France will loose it's top position and the South will be insignificant.
So Germany will export 6% of their GDP to the BRICs, and in order for the Eurozone as a whole to maintain a neutral current account balance, the rest of the Eurozone will import 4% of their GDP from the BRICs. And then Germany will tell everyone that because they don't export directly to the rest of the EZ, the rest of the EZ's deficit is none of its concern.

But the fact is, the rest of the world cannot be relied on to keep the Euro undervalued so it can avoid running a neutral current account balance. Because there's no way to coerce the BRICs, politically, to overvalue their currencies.

I distribute. You re-distribute. He gives your hard-earned money to lazy scroungers. -- JakeS

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Mar 11th, 2013 at 08:08:10 AM EST
[ Parent ]

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