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German exports in 2012:
But the determining factor for the formation of a German-centered trade block following an EZone/EU collapse would be the question where Northern and Eastern countries export to. I'm pretty sure that to most Germany will be the most important export market.
And 2012 is of course the present, not the past, except in a hyper literal sense.
Even so, this guess includes six members of the EU and Switzerland.
I would like a source for that claim
It's a GS projection:
http://www.goldmansachs.com/s/GMeT_othermailings_attachments/63488662514238375059101.pdf
And no, trade figures for 2012 do represent the past of business that has been completed and payed for. File closed. Current order books and business plans have to take into consideration a horizon of 2020 at the very least.
And Goldman Sachs - in 2007 they probably made projections how Ireland would grow into the largest european economy or something.
Come back with a halfway credible source and then we can talk.
- Jake Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.
Proving a negative is hard, after all.
China will become the most important trade partner. Russia will overtake the US. France will loose it's top position and the South will be insignificant.
But the fact is, the rest of the world cannot be relied on to keep the Euro undervalued so it can avoid running a neutral current account balance. Because there's no way to coerce the BRICs, politically, to overvalue their currencies. I distribute. You re-distribute. He gives your hard-earned money to lazy scroungers. -- JakeS
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