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I see the following plausible warlike scenarios, say in the next 5 years:

  • Spanish breakup: think Yugoslavia 1990s, but without the religions.
  • Great Hungary: a fascist successor of the Fidesz-Jobbik regime invades Romania, Slovakia and/or Serbia.
  • Greek civil war: Golden Dawn vs. Syriza.


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by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Mar 4th, 2013 at 08:54:12 AM EST
Yes, those are the big ones. But another five years of austerity and we might get new candidates to that list. If Bersani+Monti gets majority after a new electio, will Lega Nord pick up their old ambitions of secessionism? Are there fascist movements that might take over the relatively weak democracies of eastern Europe?

When thinking about the dynamics of EU and the crisis, I think that if there are wars the major powers will be tempted to get involved. Which means they (and thus the EU) are supporting one side against the other and then allowing the supported side to remain in the EU/represent the state in the EU. Which also means that EU continues, but not necessarily as a club of democracies.

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by A swedish kind of death on Mon Mar 4th, 2013 at 02:28:42 PM EST
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I'm thinking Italy might become a sort of failed state without falling into an outright civil war. Also Portugal.

I distribute. You re-distribute. He gives your hard-earned money to lazy scroungers. -- JakeS
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Mar 4th, 2013 at 04:13:20 PM EST
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